A low pressure area (LPA) formed along the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) on Thursday, October 21.
As of Thursday afternoon, the LPA was located 825 kilometers east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is embedded along the ITCZ, which is affecting Palawan, the Visayas, and Mindanao.
Due to the LPA and the ITCZ, the region of Caraga is expected to have scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the next 24 hours. Flash floods and landslides are possible.
PAGASA Weather Specialist Ariel Rojas said the LPA only has a slim chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, so far.
It is expected to approach the Visayas on Friday, October 22, then cross the Visayas and Mimaropa during the weekend, bringing rain.
It may exit toward the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening, October 24, or Monday, October 25, added Rojas.
He advised the public to continue monitoring updates on the LPA since forecasts can still change.
Meanwhile, Batanes and the Babuyan Islands will have isolated light rain due to the northeasterly surface windflow, but PAGASA said there will be “no significant impact.”
The rest of the Philippines will have generally fair weather, but could also have isolated rain from the ITCZ or localized thunderstorms.
PAGASA declared the start of La Niña last Friday, October 15, which means more rain is expected in the coming months. La Niña is seen to last until the first quarter of 2022.
The Philippines is also in a period of transition to the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan, following the end of the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.
The country has had 14 tropical cyclones in 2021. The annual average is 20. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021) – Rappler.com