A low pressure area (LPA) that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 8 pm on Thursday, July 15, has a “high chance” of developing into a tropical cyclone.

If it becomes a tropical cyclone, it would be given the local name Fabian.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing at around 5 am on Friday, July 16, that the LPA was last spotted 1,240 kilometers east of Northern Luzon.

It is unlikely to make landfall, for now, but it could “gradually enhance” the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat in the coming days.

The southwest monsoon would then trigger more rain, particularly in Luzon and parts of the Visayas, said PAGASA Weather Specialist Shelly Ignacio.

The southwest monsoon will already affect parts of the Philippines on Friday. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are expected in the following areas:

• Mimaropa
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Western Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will only have isolated rain or thunderstorms on Friday. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

There have been five tropical cyclones in 2021, with one of them in July – Tropical Depression Emong.

Around 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the rest of 2021, these are PAGASA’s estimates per month:

• July – 1 to 3
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

The rainy season has been underway since early June, though there are relatively dry periods called monsoon breaks. – Rappler.com