A low pressure area (LPA) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon, October 18, with the state weather bureau not ruling out the possibility that it could become a tropical depression.

In an online briefing at 5 pm on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is now 1,035 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes.

While the weather system remains far from land, its trough or extension is already affecting parts of the country.

PAGASA said the LPA’s trough will trigger scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the following regions in the next 24 hours:

• Eastern Visayas
• Caraga
• Davao Region

The rain may be moderate to heavy at times, which may cause floods and landslides. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA said in a separate 5 pm bulletin that the LPA is “likely to further strengthen” while moving over the Philippine Sea and heading for the northern part of Luzon.

“As such, the LPA may develop into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours,” the state weather bureau added.

If the LPA develops into a tropical depression, it would be locally named Pepito. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

Pepito would be the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 3rd for October.

Meanwhile, the northeasterly surface windflow is affecting Luzon. PAGASA said it will bring rain showers to these areas, with floods and landslides possible during heavy rain:

• Metro Manila
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Cagayan Valley
• Central Luzon
• Calabarzon
• Bicol

The Ilocos Region will also have isolated light rain due to the northeasterly surface windflow, but PAGASA said there will be “no significant impact.”

The rest of the country will experience generally fair weather, with just isolated rain showers.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com