PAGASA forecasts

PAGASA: Higher chances of LPA outside PAR becoming tropical cyclone

Acor Arceo
PAGASA: Higher chances of LPA outside PAR becoming tropical cyclone

LPA. Satellite image of the low pressure area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility on December 22, 2021.

PAGASA video screenshot

There is now a 60% to 70% probability of the low pressure area becoming a tropical cyclone. It may also enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility after Christmas, no longer by Christmas Eve.

MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) being monitored by the weather bureau now has higher chances of developing into a tropical cyclone.

From the previous 30% to 40%, there is now a 60% to 70% probability of the LPA becoming a tropical cyclone, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday, December 22.

The possible dates of entry of the LPA have also changed. It was earlier seen to enter PAR either Thursday, December 23, or Friday, December 24.

But PAGASA told Rappler that the LPA’s movement has been “erratic” so far. It is now expected to enter PAR either Sunday, December 26, or Monday, December 27.

That means the LPA could no longer threaten parts of the Visayas and Mindanao during the Christmas weekend, as earlier feared.

But PAGASA said the weather disturbance may be closest to Mindanao landmass on the evening of December 29 or the morning of December 30. The region must still prepare for rain.

On Wednesday afternoon, the LPA was located over the Pacific Ocean, 1,870 kilometers east southeast of Mindanao.

The weather bureau advised the public to continue monitoring updates on the LPA, since the forecast could still change in the coming days.

If the LPA develops into a tropical cyclone and eventually enters PAR, it would be the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2021. Its local name would be Paolo, and it would come around two weeks since the onslaught of Typhoon Odette (Rai).

Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Western Visayas, and Mimaropa are under a state of calamity due to Odette. – Rappler.com

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.