A low pressure area (LPA) in the northern part of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat are triggering rain in much of the country on Sunday, October 11.

In a bulletin issued 11 am on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said there are actually two LPAs inside PAR.

The LPA in the north is located 60 kilometers west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur, and is the one responsible for the rain on Sunday, along with the southwest monsoon.

Moderate to heavy rain

• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Ilocos Sur
• Isabela
• Pangasinan
• Aurora
• northern part of Palawan, including Kalayaan and Calamian Islands
• Occidental Mindoro

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Luzon
• Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Northern Mindanao

PAGASA warned that floods and landslides are possible during heavy or prolonged rainfall.

The state weather bureau added that the LPA off Ilocos Sur is likely to develop into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

As for the second LPA, it is down south, located 760 kilometers east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

At the moment, it is too far to have a direct impact on the country, but PAGASA said it is moving northwest toward the Eastern Visayas-Bicol area.

This LPA is also likely to become a tropical depression within the next 48 to 72 hours, added PAGASA.

If both LPAs develop into tropical depressions inside PAR, they would be the Philippines’ 14th and 15th tropical cyclones for 2020, and also the first two for October.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com