PAGASA forecasts

LPA’s trough to affect parts of Northern Luzon

Acor Arceo
LPA’s trough to affect parts of Northern Luzon

LOW PRESSURE AREAS. Satellite image of an LPA inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and another LPA outside PAR, as of October 10, 2022, 5 am.


The low pressure area is 590 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, early Monday, October 10. Another LPA remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

MANILA, Philippines – The trough or extension of the low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) will bring rain to parts of Northern Luzon on Monday, October 10.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 4 am forecast that the LPA was already 590 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms due to the LPA’s trough are expected in these areas on Monday:

  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • Cagayan

The rest of the Philippines will have generally fair weather, with only isolated rain showers or thunderstorms not linked to the trough of the LPA.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Obet Badrina said the weather bureau is still not ruling out the possibility of the LPA developing into a tropical cyclone, though chances remain slim on Monday.

Meanwhile, PAGASA continues to monitor an LPA outside PAR. It was last spotted 1,880 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas before dawn on Monday and has no direct effect on the country yet. Further updates are expected in the coming days.

The Philippines has had 12 tropical cyclones in 2022, with none yet in October.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

  • October 2022 – 2 to 4
  • November 2022 – 2 or 3
  • December 2022 – 1 or 2
  • January 2023 – 0 or 1
  • February 2023 – 0 or 1
  • March 2023 – 0 or 1


Add a comment

Sort by

There are no comments yet. Add your comment to start the conversation.


Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.