MANILA, Philippines – Metro Manila is already among the areas seeing the heaviest rain from the enhanced southwest monsoon or habagat, the weather bureau said on Thursday evening, August 31.

The southwest monsoon is being enhanced by Super Typhoon Goring (Saola), which earlier left the Philippine Area of Responsibility; Severe Tropical Storm Hanna (Haikui), which is inside PAR; and Severe Tropical Storm Kirogi, which is outside PAR.

In an advisory issued at 11 pm on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the enhanced southwest monsoon is affecting these regions and provinces:

Thursday night, August 31, to Friday night, September 1

• 100-200 millimeters (mm): Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas

Friday night, September 1, to Saturday night, September 2

• 100-200 mm: Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas

Saturday night, September 2, to Sunday night, September 3

• 100-200 mm: Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Calamian Islands, Antique

Floods and landslides are expected.

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Gusty conditions will also persist in these areas due to the enhanced southwest monsoon:

Friday, September 1

• Batanes, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, northern part of Eastern Visayas

Saturday, September 2

• Batanes, Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas, northern part of Eastern Visayas

Sunday, September 3

• Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas

For coastal waters, most seaboards of Luzon and the Visayas remain under a gale warning.

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Meanwhile, Hanna maintained its strength on Thursday evening while still moving over the Philippine Sea.

The severe tropical storm continues to have maximum sustained winds of 110 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 135 km/h.

But on Friday, September 1, it could intensify into a typhoon, then reach its peak intensity on Saturday, September 2.

As of 10 pm on Thursday, Hanna was located 950 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon, moving west northwest at 20 km/h.

PAGASA still sees Hanna staying far from Philippine landmass, which means it is “less likely” to directly bring rain, winds, or rough sea conditions to the country. But its effect on the southwest monsoon is being monitored.

Hanna is now projected to exit PAR on Saturday morning or afternoon while passing close to Japan’s Yaeyama or Miyako Islands.

After leaving PAR, it could move over the East China Sea, then make landfall in mainland China “as a typhoon near its peak intensity” on Sunday morning or afternoon, September 3. “Rapid weakening will then ensue following its landfall over mainland China,” PAGASA said.

The weather bureau noted, however, that “further shifts” in Hanna’s track are possible. Landfall in Taiwan is not ruled out.

Goring, which left PAR on Wednesday evening, August 30, continues to move away. As of Thursday evening, the super typhoon was already 485 kilometers west of Itbayat, Batanes, heading for the southern part of China.

Kirogi, meanwhile, was 3,140 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon on Thursday afternoon. This severe tropical storm is moving north at 25 km/h. It has maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h and gustiness of up to 125 km/h.

Goring and Hanna are the Philippines’ seventh and eighth tropical cyclones for 2023, respectively.

For the next 6 months, PAGASA estimated that 6 to 9 tropical cyclones may form within or enter PAR:

• September 2023 – 2 or 3
• October 2023 – 2 or 3
• November 2023 – 1 or 2
• December 2023 – 1 or 2
• January 2024 – 0 or 1
• February 2024 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com