Severe Tropical Storm Jolina (Conson) was moving over the Tayabas Bay-Verde Island passage area before dawn on Wednesday, September 8, while Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu) was undergoing rapid intensification.

Jolina

In a briefing past 5 am on Wednesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Jolina was located off Boac, Marinduque.

The severe tropical storm was still moving west northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h, while its gustiness is now up to 150 km/h from the previous 125 km/h.

As of 5 am, Metro Manila joined the areas expected to see the strongest rain from Jolina on Wednesday.

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Metro Manila
• Romblon
• Marinduque
• Cavite
• Laguna
• Batangas
• Rizal
• Quezon
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Aurora
• Bataan
• Bulacan
• Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Tarlac
• Zambales
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• northern part of Palawan
• Aklan
• Antique
• Capiz
• Iloilo
• Guimaras

Scattered to widespread floods and landslides are highly likely, warned PAGASA.

Below are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 am on Wednesday. (READ: Why is it now called tropical cyclone ‘wind’ – and not ‘warning’ – signals?)

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)

• northern part of Romblon (Banton, Corcuera, Concepcion, Calatrava, San Andres, San Agustin, Romblon)
• Marinduque
• northern and central parts of Oriental Mindoro (Bansud, Gloria, Pinamalayan, Pola, Socorro, Victoria, Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City, Naujan)
• northern and central parts of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz, Sablayan) including Lubang Islands
• central and southern parts of Quezon (Buenavista, Mulanay, San Narciso, San Francisco, San Andres, Catanauan, General Luna, Lopez, Macalelon, Sampaloc, Unisan, Pagbilao, Sariaya, Alabat, Pitogo, Tayabas City, Padre Burgos, Lucban, Gumaca, Agdangan, Plaridel, San Antonio, Candelaria, Atimonan, Quezon, Tiaong, Mauban, Perez, Lucena City, Dolores, Real, Infanta)
• Batangas
• Cavite
• Laguna
• Rizal
• Metro Manila
• southern part of Bulacan (Pandi, Bulacan, Marilao, Calumpit, Norzagaray, Plaridel, Santa Maria, Balagtas, Bocaue, Bustos, Malolos City, Angat, Obando, San Jose del Monte City, Pulilan, Meycauayan City, Hagonoy, Paombong, Guiguinto, San Rafael, Baliuag)
• Pampanga
• Bataan
• Zambales
• Tarlac

Signal No. 1 (strong winds with occasional gusts)

• La Union
• southern part of Benguet (Sablan, Tublay, Bokod, La Trinidad, Baguio City, Itogon, Tuba, Kapangan, Atok)
• southern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda, Dupax del Norte, Dupax del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Kayapa)
• southern part of Aurora (Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis, Dingalan)
• Pangasinan
• Nueva Ecija
• rest of Bulacan
• rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• western part of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Libmanan, Calabanga, Bombon, Pili, Naga City, Cabusao, Canaman, Gainza, Camaligan, Magarao, Pasacao, Pamplona, San Fernando, Milaor, Minalabac, Bula, Baao, Nabua, Balatan, Bato, Ocampo, Iriga City, Tinambac, Siruma)
• western part of Albay (Libon, Oas, Ligao City, Pio Duran, Polangui)
• northwestern part of Masbate (Aroroy) including Burias Island
• rest of Romblon
• rest of Oriental Mindoro
• rest of Occidental Mindoro
• northwestern part of Antique (Caluya)
• northern part of Aklan (Makato, Numancia, Buruanga, Tangalan, Ibajay, Malay, Nabas)

PAGASA also warned that storm surges up to 1.5 meters high may hit several coastal areas of Quezon, possibly threatening life and property.

“In addition, coastal areas of localities under [tropical cyclone wind signals], especially those at No. 2, may also experience coastal flooding due to hazardous surf conditions,” added the state weather bureau.

PAGASA maintained its warning against travel in seaboards affected by Jolina on Wednesday.

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.5 to 5 meters high)

Travel risky for all vessels, inexperienced mariners should seek safe harbor

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 2

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1
• remaining seaboards of Visayas

From Tayabas Bay, Jolina is seen to make another landfall in the eastern part of Batangas on Wednesday morning. But PAGASA is not ruling out landfall in the northern part of Oriental Mindoro, since the severe tropical storm’s track has been shifting southwest.

Jolina could cross the Batangas-Cavite area afterwards and emerge over Manila Bay on Wednesday evening.

Then it could make yet another landfall in Bataan. As it crosses mainland Luzon, Jolina may also weaken into a tropical storm.

So far, Jolina has made landfall seven times – the first six as a typhoon and the seventh as a severe tropical storm.

Monday, September 6

• Hernani, Eastern Samar – 10 pm

Tuesday, September 7

• Daram, Samar – 2 am
• Santo Niño, Samar – 3:40 am
• Almagro, Samar – 6:30 am
• Tagapul-an, Samar – 7:50 am
• Dimasalang, Masbate – 10 am

Wednesday, September 8

• Torrijos, Marinduque – 12:50 am

Finally, Jolina could emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Thursday morning, September 9. It may regain strength beginning Thursday afternoon as it heads for the southern China-northern Vietnam area.

It is likely to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday morning, September 10. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA

Kiko

Kiko, meanwhile, rapidly intensified over the Philippine Sea. It now has maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h and gustiness of up to 185 km/h.

Late Tuesday evening, September 7, Kiko had maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gustiness of up to 150 km/h.

PAGASA now expects Kiko to reach a peak intensity of 185 to 205 km/h on Friday while moving over extreme Northern Luzon.

The typhoon was located 1,175 kilometers east of Central Luzon before dawn on Wednesday, moving west at 20 km/h.

It is heading for the Luzon Strait and the vicinity of extreme Northern Luzon.

PAGASA said heavy rain from Kiko may begin affecting extreme Northern Luzon on Friday.

There is also a “moderate to high likelihood” of tropical cyclone wind signals being raised for several provinces in Northern Luzon due to Kiko, beginning Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.

Signal No. 4 is now the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal, since Kiko has considerably strengthened.

PAGASA added that Kiko may trigger rough conditions in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon beginning Thursday as it nears extreme Northern Luzon.

“Due to the strength of this tropical cyclone, sea condition over the waters in the northern provinces of the country will likely be risky for all types of seacraft in the coming days,” the state weather bureau said.

On Saturday, September 11, Kiko could pass near the southern coast of Taiwan, which is still within PAR. Weakening is possible on Saturday as the typhoon interacts with Taiwan’s rugged terrain.

Kiko is also seen to leave PAR on Saturday.

By Sunday evening, September 12, or Monday morning, September 13, Kiko might make landfall in the southeastern part of China.

PAGASA

Jolina and Kiko are the Philippines’ 10th and 11th tropical cyclones for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the next six months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:

2021

• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com