Severe Tropical Storm Jolina (Conson) weakened a bit as it was about to make landfall in the Lobo-San Juan area in Batangas early Wednesday morning, September 8.

Jolina’s maximum sustained winds decreased from 100 kilometers per hour to 95 km/h, while its gustiness went down from 150 km/h to 115 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 8 am bulletin that the severe tropical storm was already over the coastal waters of San Juan, Batangas, still moving west northwest at 15 km/h.

Jolina was set to make its eighth landfall in either Lobo or San Juan within one or two hours, PAGASA said.

So far, Jolina has made landfall seven times – the first six as a typhoon and the seventh as a severe tropical storm.

Monday, September 6

• Hernani, Eastern Samar – 10 pm

Tuesday, September 7

• Daram, Samar – 2 am
• Santo Niño, Samar – 3:40 am
• Almagro, Samar – 6:30 am
• Tagapul-an, Samar – 7:50 am
• Dimasalang, Masbate – 10 am

Wednesday, September 8

• Torrijos, Marinduque – 12:50 am

Though Jolina has slightly weakened, it is still dumping rain, which may trigger scattered to widespread floods and landslides. Below is PAGASA’s rainfall forecast as of 8 am.

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Metro Manila
• Bataan
• Romblon
• Marinduque
• Cavite
• Laguna
• Batangas
• Rizal
• Quezon
• Camarines Norte
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Aurora
• Bulacan
• Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Tarlac
• Zambales
• Camarines Sur
• northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Aklan
• Antique
• Capiz
• Iloilo
• Guimaras
• Negros Occidental

As of 8 am on Wednesday, all of the areas remaining under Signal Nos. 1 and 2 are in Luzon. (READ: Why is it now called tropical cyclone ‘wind’ – and not ‘warning’ – signals?)

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)

• Marinduque
• northern and central parts of Oriental Mindoro (Bansud, Gloria, Pinamalayan, Pola, Socorro, Victoria, Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City, Naujan)
• northern and central parts of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz, Sablayan) including Lubang Islands
• central and southern parts of Quezon (General Luna, Macalelon, Sampaloc, Unisan, Pagbilao, Sariaya, Alabat, Pitogo, Tayabas City, Padre Burgos, Lucban, Gumaca, Agdangan, Plaridel, San Antonio, Candelaria, Atimonan, Quezon, Tiaong, Mauban, Perez, Lucena City, Dolores, Real, Infanta)
• Batangas
• Cavite
• Laguna
• Rizal
• Metro Manila
• southern part of Bulacan (Pandi, Bulacan, Marilao, Calumpit, Norzagaray, Plaridel, Santa Maria, Balagtas, Bocaue, Bustos, Malolos City, Angat, Obando, San Jose del Monte City, Pulilan, Meycauayan City, Hagonoy, Paombong, Guiguinto, San Rafael, Baliuag)
• Pampanga
• Bataan
• Zambales
• Tarlac

Signal No. 1 (strong winds with occasional gusts)

• La Union
• southern part of Benguet (Sablan, Tublay, Bokod, La Trinidad, Baguio City, Itogon, Tuba, Kapangan, Atok)
• southern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda, Dupax del Norte, Dupax del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Kayapa)
• southern part of Aurora (Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis, Dingalan)
• Pangasinan
• Nueva Ecija
• rest of Bulacan
• rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• western part of Camarines Sur (Ragay, Del Gallego, Lupi, Sipocot, Cabusao, Libmanan, Pasacao, Pamplona)
• western part of Romblon (Odiongan, Romblon, Banton, Santa Maria, Concepcion, San Andres, San Jose, Looc, Ferrol, Alcantara, San Agustin, Calatrava, Corcuera, Santa Fe)
• rest of Oriental Mindoro
• rest of Occidental Mindoro

PAGASA updated its storm surge warning as well, saying that storm surges up to 1 meter high could hit coastal areas of the following provinces in the next 24 hours:

• Oriental Mindoro
• Batangas
• Quezon

Storm surges may threaten life and property, warned the state weather bureau.

“In addition, coastal areas of localities under [tropical cyclone wind signals], especially those at No. 2, may also experience coastal flooding due to hazardous surf conditions,” PAGASA said.

Sea travel remains prohibited in areas affected by Jolina.

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.5 to 5.5 meters high)

Travel risky for all vessels, inexperienced mariners should seek safe harbor

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 2

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1
• remaining seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas

Following its expected landfall in Batangas, Jolina is projected to cross the Batangas-Cavite area and then emerge over Manila Bay on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Afterwards, Jolina could make its ninth landfall in Bataan. And, as it crosses mainland Luzon, it may weaken into a tropical storm.

Finally, Jolina could emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Thursday morning, September 9. It may regain strength beginning Thursday afternoon as it heads for the southern China-northern Vietnam area.

It is likely to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday morning, September 10.

PAGASA

Aside from Jolina, Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu) is also inside PAR.

Kiko was located 1,175 kilometers east of Central Luzon before dawn on Wednesday, still too far to affect the Philippines.

PAGASA’s next bulletin on the typhoon will be issued at 11 am on Wednesday. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

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Jolina and Kiko are the Philippines’ 10th and 11th tropical cyclones for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the next six months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:

2021

• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com