The weather bureau warned late Monday afternoon, October 11, that Severe Tropical Storm Maring (Kompasu) is endangering the Babuyan Islands, a group of islands belonging to the province of Cagayan.

Maring was already 105 kilometers east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan, or 120 kilometers east southeast of Calayan, Cagayan, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its 5 pm bulletin.

The severe tropical storm is still moving west at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It is expected to pass very close to or over the Babuyan Islands on Monday evening, then continue crossing the Luzon Strait until early Tuesday morning, October 12.

Landfall in mainland northern Cagayan now appears less likely, based on the severe tropical storm’s latest forecast track.

So far, Maring continues to have maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Rainfall ranging from light to torrential will continue to hit Northern Luzon and Central Luzon on Monday evening.

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Batanes
• northern part of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• Apayao
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Benguet

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of mainland Cagayan
• rest of Ilocos Region
• rest of Cordillera Administrative Region

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Cagayan Valley
• Central Luzon

The southwest monsoon or hanging habagat enhanced by Maring will trigger more rain, too.

Monsoon rain

• Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Palawan
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro

Other areas affected by scattered rain showers and thunderstorms from the enhanced southwest monsoon include:

• Metro Manila
• Calabarzon
• Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
• Soccsksargen

Meanwhile, the following areas remain under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 pm on Monday:

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• northern part of Isabela (Palanan, Divilacan, Maconacon, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Quirino, Gamu, Roxas, Mallig, Quezon)
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Abra
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur

Signal No. 1 (strong winds)

• rest of Isabela
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• Tarlac
• Zambales
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• northern part of Bataan (Samal, Morong, Dinalupihan, Abucay, Orani, Hermosa)
• northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands
• Calaguas Islands

Occasional gusts remain possible in island, coastal, and mountainous areas of most places in the country due to Maring’s “expansive wind field” and the enhanced southwest monsoon.

• rest of Luzon
• Visayas
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Agusan del Norte
• Misamis Oriental
• Misamis Occidental
• Camiguin
• Zamboanga del Norte

PAGASA also warned that there is a “minimal to moderate risk” of life-threatening storm surges up to 1 meter high in the next 24 hours.

“Rising seawater along with the high waves from the shoreline moving inland may cause flooding in the low-lying coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Norte,” the weather bureau said.

Sea travel remains dangerous.

Rough to high seas

Conditions risky for all vessels

• seaboards of areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2 (waves 2.5 to 7.5 meters high)

Rough to very rough seas

Small vessels advised not to sail, larger vessels alerted against big waves

• seaboards of Southern Luzon and Western Visayas (waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high)
• western seaboard of Central Luzon not under a tropical cyclone wind signal (waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Conditions risky for small vessels

• remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)
• northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)

Maring is likely to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday morning.

Outside PAR, it could intensify into a typhoon on Tuesday evening.

It may make landfall in the Chinese island province of Hainan on Wednesday afternoon, October 13, and possibly weaken as it interacts with southern China’s landmass.

PAGASA

Maring is the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone for 2021 and the second for October.

On Sunday morning, October 10, Maring had completed its merger with the remnant low that was formerly Tropical Depression Nando. The two tropical cyclones had interacted over the Philippine Sea, resulting in the merger.

Nando, the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2021, had no impact on weather in the country.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the next six months:

2021

• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1

The weather bureau is also monitoring the possible emergence of La Niña in the fourth quarter of 2021. – Rappler.com