Severe Tropical Storm Quinta (Molave) continued to intensify early Sunday afternoon, October 25, increasing its threat over the Catanduanes-Albay area, according to the state weather bureau.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 2 pm bulletin on Sunday that Quinta is already 95 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes.

The severe tropical storm is still moving west toward the region of Bicol at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The provinces where Quinta could make landfall between Sunday afternoon and evening have been narrowed down to two: Catanduanes or Albay. Sorsogon is no longer in PAGASA’s latest bulletin as a potential landfall area, though it will still be affected by the severe tropical storm.

After hitting land, Quinta will cross Southern Luzon until Monday afternoon, October 26, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea.

Quinta’s maximum winds increased to 110 km/h from the previous 95 km/h, while its gustiness is now up to 135 km/h from the previous 115 km/h. It is also not done intensifying yet – PAGASA said there is a possibility that Quinta could make landfall as a typhoon.

Then, once Quinta crosses land, it is seen to strengthen further over the West Philippine Sea. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

These are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 2 pm on Sunday:

Signal No. 2

• Catanduanes
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands
• central and southern parts of Quezon (Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Dolores, Candelaria, Tiaong, San Antonio, Sariaya, Tayabas City, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Atimonan, Perez, Alabat, Calauag, Quezon, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Lopez, Pitogo, Plaridel, Gumaca, Unisan, Agdangan, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Catanauan, General Luna, Buenavista, San Narciso, Mulanay, San Andres, San Francisco)
• southeastern part of Laguna (Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti, Luisiana, Majayjay, Liliw, Rizal, Nagcarlan, San Pablo City, Alaminos, Magdalena, Pagsanjan)
• Batangas
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Oriental Mindoro
• Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
• Northern Samar

Signal No. 1

• rest of Quezon
• rest of Laguna
• Rizal
• Cavite
• Metro Manila
• Bulacan
• Pampanga
• Bataan
• southern part of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso, Castillejos, Subic, San Antonio, Olongapo City, Botolan, Cabangan)
• Calamian Islands
• northern part of Samar (Calbayog City, Matuguinao, Tagapul-an, Santo Niño, Almagro, Santa Margarita, Gandara, San Jose de Buan, Pagsanghan, Tarangnan, San Jorge, Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas)
• northern part of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, San Policarpo, Oras, Dolores, Can-avid, Taft)
• northern part of Capiz (Sapi-an, Ivisan, Roxas City, Panay, Pilar, Pontevedra, President Roxas)
• Aklan
• northern part of Antique (Caluya, Libertad, Pandan, Sebaste, Culasi)
• northeastern part of Iloilo (Batad, Balasan, Estancia, Carles)

PAGASA said stormy conditions will be experienced in areas under Signal No. 2, while strong breeze to near gale conditions will be experienced in areas under Signal No. 1.

Strong breeze to gale conditions from a northeasterly surge will also persist in the following areas:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan

PAGASA maintained its rainfall forecast for Quinta, which is already bringing rain, along with the tail-end of a frontal system. The forecast covers the rest of Sunday until Monday morning.

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain (Quinta)

• Bicol
• Calabarzon
• Aurora
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Romblon
• Marinduque
• Calamian Islands
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Aklan
• Antique

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain (tail-end of a frontal system)

• Cagayan
• Isabela
• Apayao
• Ilocos Norte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain (Quinta and tail-end of a frontal system)

• rest of Luzon
• rest of Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
• Northern Mindanao
• Caraga

Residents must watch out for floods and landslides, as well as “sediment-laden streamflows” such as lahar in areas near Mayon Volcano.

PAGASA also warned that storm surges 1 to 2 meters high may affect coastal areas of the following:

• Northern Samar
• Bicol
• central and southern parts of Quezon

Travel remains risky in seaboards with rough to very rough waters, especially for small vessels.

Rough to very rough seas

• seaboards of Northern Luzon (waves 3 to 5.5 meters high)
• areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2 (waves 2.5 to 5.5 meters high)
• seaboards of Aurora, Zambales, and northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands (waves 2.5 to 4.5 meters high)

Those with small vessels should also take precautionary measures as waters elsewhere are moderate to rough.

Moderate to rough seas

• other seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)

“Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions,” added PAGASA.

Based on its latest forecast track, Quinta might leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon.

Image from PAGASA

Quinta is the Philippines’ 17th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 4th for October.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• November 2020 – 1 to 3
• December 2020 – 2 or 3
• January 2021 – 0 or 1
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1
• April 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com