SUMMARY
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Surigae, the tropical cyclone outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), intensified from a tropical storm into a severe tropical storm at 8 am on Thursday, April 15.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced this development in an advisory at 11 am on Thursday.
PAGASA said Severe Tropical Storm Surigae now has maximum sustained winds of 95 kilometers per hour (km/h) and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
It will continue to strengthen and is likely to become a typhoon in the next 36 hours.
As of Thursday morning, Surigae was located 1,095 kilometers east of Mindanao, moving west at only 10 km/h. Given its location, it currently has “no direct effect” on the country, said PAGASA.
The severe tropical storm is now projected to enter PAR between Thursday evening and Friday morning, April 16. It will be given the local name Bising once it is inside PAR. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)
It could then gradually speed up while moving west northwest until Sunday, April 18, then turn northward by Monday, April 19, added the state weather bureau.
If Surigae does turn northward, that means it would likely spare the Philippines from landfall.
But there is also a possibility that Surigae may head west or toward the eastern parts of Southern Luzon and the Visayas, particularly Bicol and Eastern Visayas.
PAGASA stressed that those areas must continue to monitor updates on Surigae or the potential Bising, since a westward shift could “result in potentially significant impacts” – rain, winds, rough seas – from Saturday, April 17, to Monday. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)
Surigae or Bising would be the Philippines’ second tropical cyclone for 2021, following Auring (Dujuan) in February. Auring was a severe tropical storm at its peak but hit land as a tropical depression.
For the next 6 months, PAGASA estimates the following number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:
- April – 0 or 1
- May – 0 or 1
- June – 1 or 2
- July – 1 to 3
- August – 2 or 3
- September – 2 or 3
An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. – Rappler.com
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