The Philippine weather bureau warned that there is an “increasing likelihood of heavy rainfall” in parts of the country this coming weekend until Monday, February 22, as Tropical Depression Auring slowly heads for land.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Wednesday, February 17, that Auring is now 755 kilometers east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

The tropical depression remains too far to affect any part of the country.

It slowed down further, moving at just 10 kilometers per hour (km/h) from 15 km/h in the afternoon. PAGASA said it could speed up by Friday, February 19.

Auring currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is projected to strengthen into a tropical storm, however, by Thursday, February 18.

Auring might make landfall in the region of Caraga on Saturday evening, February 20, or Sunday morning, February 21, as a tropical storm. But its forecast track can still change since it is still far from land. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

During the coming weekend until Monday, the areas below are likely to experience heavy rain from Auring. This is an expanded list compared to the one given in PAGASA’s 11 am bulletin on Wednesday.

• Bicol
• Calabarzon
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
• Visayas
• Caraga
• Northern Mindanao
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Lanao del Sur

There are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals yet. But PAGASA said Signal No. 1 could be raised in parts of Caraga and the Davao Region as early as Friday to warn residents that “strong breeze to near-gale conditions” are expected.

When tropical cyclone wind signals are raised, maritime activities may also be disrupted, added the state weather bureau.

PAGASA again stressed the importance of preparing early for Auring’s arrival, especially for residents of flood- and landslide-prone areas.

“Meron pa tayong time para po mag-prepare do’n sa mga pag-ulan at mga malakas na hangin na dala ni Auring (We still have time to prepare for the rain and strong winds that Auring will bring),” said PAGASA Weather Specialist Benison Estareja in an online briefing past 11 pm on Wednesday.

Image from PAGASA

PAGASA also warned that the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan will affect coastal waters on Thursday.

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high)

Sea travel is risky

• seaboards of Northern Luzon

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 3.1 meters high)

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao

Each year, around 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com