Auring (Dujuan) weakened from a tropical storm into a tropical depression on Sunday evening, February 21, just hours away from its expected landfall.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Sunday that Auring now has maximum sustained winds of just 55 kilometers per hour (km/h) and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

PAGASA added that there is an “increasing likelihood” that Auring will further weaken before landfall due to the “persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the northeast monsoon” or hanging amihan. The northeast monsoon brings cold and dry air, causing the weakening of the tropical cyclone.

As of late Sunday evening, Auring was already 210 kilometers east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte, moving west northwest at 15 km/h.

PAGASA said the tropical depression could make landfall in the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar-Leyte area in the next 6 to 12 hours, which would be sometime before 11 am on Monday, February 22.

After hitting land, it is likely to “weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear,” and may just be a remnant low by Monday. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

But the state weather bureau still expects more rain from Auring overnight until Monday, so residents must stay on alert for floods and landslides. (IN PHOTOS: Surigao del Sur flooded due to Tropical Storm Auring)

Sunday evening, February 21, until Monday morning, February 22

Moderate to heavy rain

• Eastern Visayas
• Central Visayas
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Camiguin

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Quezon
• rest of Visayas
• rest of Caraga
• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Zamboanga Peninsula

Monday morning until late evening, February 22

Moderate to heavy rain

• Bicol
• Quezon
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Western Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Calabarzon
• rest of Mimaropa
• Aurora
• rest of Visayas

With Auring downgraded to a tropical depression, there are no more areas under Signal No. 2. Here are the areas under Signal No. 1 as of 11 pm on Sunday:

• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
• Albay
• Catanduanes
• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagñay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Bohol
• Cebu
• Siquijor
• northern and eastern parts of Negros Oriental (Dumaguete City, Sibulan, San Jose, Amlan, Pamplona, Tanjay City, Bais City, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Guihulngan City, Canlaon City, Vallehermoso)
• northern and central parts of Negros Occidental (Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, La Castellana, La Carlota City, Bago City, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, San Enrique, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Murcia, San Carlos City, Bacolod City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso)
• eastern part of Iloilo (Dumangas, Barotac Nuevo, Anilao, San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Banate, Passi City, San Enrique, Dingle, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
• eastern part of Capiz (Cuartero, Dumarao, Ma-ayon, Pontevedra, Panay, President Roxas, Panitan, Dao, Pilar)
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• northern part of Surigao del Sur (Lianga, Barobo, San Agustin, Marihatag, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, San Miguel, Tandag City, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal)
• Agusan del Norte
• northern part of Agusan del Sur (Bayugan City, Prosperidad, Sibagat)
• eastern part of Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Claveria, Balingasag, Lagonglong, Balingoan, Kinoguitan, Sugbongcogon, Binuangan, Salay)
• Camiguin

PAGASA said Auring and the northeast monsoon combined will bring “strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts” to areas under Signal No. 1.

Similar windy conditions will be experienced in the rest of Bicol and the Visayas, as well as the southern part of Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Cuyo Islands, and Cagayancillo Islands.

Image from PAGASA

As for coastal waters, expected wave heights are now smaller, but travel remains dangerous in certain seaboards.

Rough seas

Travel is risky, especially for small vessels

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1 (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high)
• eastern seaboard of Central Luzon and eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon not under Signal No. 1 (waves 2.5 to 3.5 meters high)
• southern seaboard of Luzon and remaining seaboards of Visayas (waves 2.5 to 3 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Auring is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com