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MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 8 am on Thursday, September 22.
It is the country’s 11th tropical cyclone for 2022 and was given the local name Karding.
In a bulletin issued at 11 am on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Karding was located 1,350 kilometers east of Central Luzon or 1,370 kilometers east of Northern Luzon.
The tropical depression is moving east at only 10 kilometers per hour (km/h).
It has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.
PAGASA said Karding is expected to remain a tropical depression throughout its stay inside PAR.
Based on Karding’s latest forecast track, it will keep moving east or east northeast slowly for the rest of Thursday, before sharply turning west toward Philippine landmass on Friday, September 23.
It could maintain its westward movement until it makes landfall in the east coast of Isabela or Cagayan on Sunday, September 25.
Then it would cross Northern Luzon before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Monday, September 26.
PAGASA warned that Karding may trigger heavy rain in Northern Luzon and Central Luzon starting late Saturday, September 24.
Isolated to scattered floods and landslides are possible.
The weather bureau also said there is a “high likelihood” of Signal No. 1 being raised in Northern Luzon and parts of Central Luzon.
Areas in the eastern part of Northern Luzon could be placed under Signal No. 1 as early as Friday evening or Saturday morning, according to PAGASA.
Karding may also cause moderate to rough seas in the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon beginning Sunday.
Waves will be 1.2 to 3.1 meters high, which may be risky for small vessels.
Karding is already the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for September, after Typhoon Inday (Muifa) and Super Typhoon Josie (Nanmadol). Inday and Josie did not make landfall in the country.
PAGASA expects 7 to 11 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from September 2022 to February 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:
- September 2022 – 2 or 3
- October 2022 – 2 to 4
- November 2022 – 2 or 3
- December 2022 – 1 or 2
- January 2023 – 0 or 1
- February 2023 – 0 or 1