tropical cyclones in PH

After Negros, Tropical Depression Lannie off Palawan’s Cuyo Islands

Acor Arceo
After Negros, Tropical Depression Lannie off Palawan’s Cuyo Islands

LANNIE. Satellite image of Tropical Depression Lannie as of October 5, 2021, 2 am.

PAGASA

Tropical Depression Lannie could make another landfall in Palawan on Tuesday morning, October 5

Tropical Depression Lannie was over the coastal waters of the Cuyo Islands in Palawan in the early hours of Tuesday, October 5, after it crossed Negros Island and emerged over the Sulu Sea on Monday evening, October 4.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 2 am bulletin on Tuesday that Lannie was moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It still has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA said Lannie could make another landfall in the northern part of mainland Palawan or in the Calamian Islands, still in Palawan, on Tuesday morning. That would be its final landfall.

Lannie hit land eight times on Monday:

  1. Bucas Grande Island, Socorro, Surigao del Norte – 4:30 am
  2. Cagdianao, Dinagat Islands – 5 am
  3. Liloan, Southern Leyte – 7:30 am
  4. Padre Burgos, Southern Leyte – 8 am
  5. Mahanay Island, Talibon, Bohol – 12:30 pm
  6. Banacon Island, Jetafe, Bohol – 12:45 pm
  7. San Fernando, Cebu – 1:45 pm
  8. Guihulngan City, Negros Oriental – 3:30 pm

PAGASA warned that rain from the tropical depression will persist on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered floods and landslides are likely.

Moderate to heavy rain
  • northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
  • rest of Mimaropa
  • Bicol
  • Calabarzon
  • Visayas
  • Mindanao

The National Capital Region-PAGASA Regional Services Division also issued a separate rainfall advisory at 2 am on Tuesday, saying that light to moderate rain – possibly heavy at times – was affecting Metro Manila.

Signal No. 1, which means strong winds, remains raised in the following areas as of 2 am:

  • southwestern part of Romblon (Odiongan, Looc, Alcantara, Ferrol, Santa Fe, San Jose)
  • southern part of Oriental Mindoro (Roxas, Mansalay, Bulalacao)
  • southern part of Occidental Mindoro (Calintaan, Rizal, San Jose, Magsaysay)
  • northern part of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli), including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
  • Antique
  • western part of Aklan (Madalag, Malinao, Ibajay, Nabas, Malay, Buruanga)
  • southwestern part of Iloilo (Leon, Alimodian, Tigbauan, Tubungan, Igbaras, Guimbal, Miagao, San Joaquin, San Miguel, Oton)

The enhanced easterly flow is also bringing occasional gusts to extreme Northern Luzon as well as the coastal and mountainous areas of the eastern parts of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Bicol which are not under Signal No. 1.

On Tuesday, travel will remain risky for small vessels in the Philippines’ coastal waters. Seas are still moderate to rough, especially in areas where Signal No. 1 remains in effect.

After a potential final landfall in Palawan on Tuesday morning, Lannie is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea.

There is now an “increasing likelihood” of Lannie getting downgraded to a low pressure area, according to PAGASA.

But Lannie may also stay a tropical depression, then gradually strengthen over the West Philippine Sea and intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday morning, October 6.

Lannie is likely to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday evening.

Starting Friday, October 8, Lannie could accelerate as it heads for the southern part of China. It could also be upgraded to a severe tropical storm by Friday.

PROJECTED PATH. Forecast track of Tropical Depression Lannie as of October 5, 2021, 2 am.
PAGASA

Lannie is the Philippines’ 12th tropical cyclone for 2021. It is also the first tropical cyclone for the month of October, coming right in the middle of the filing of certificates of candidacy for the 2022 elections, which is taking place across the country. The filing of COCs is until Friday.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the next six months:

2021
  • October – 2 or 3
  • November – 2 or 3
  • December – 1 or 2
2022
  • January – 0 or 1
  • February – 0 or 1
  • March – 0 or 1

The weather bureau is also monitoring the possible emergence of La Niña in the fourth quarter of 2021. – Rappler.com

Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters, handles the business desk, and ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections.