Philippine tropical cyclones

Tropical Depression Maymay set to weaken into LPA within hours

Acor Arceo
Tropical Depression Maymay set to weaken into LPA within hours

WEATHER SYSTEMS. Satellite image of Tropical Depression Maymay and the low pressure area inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, along with the tropical depression outside PAR, as of October 12, 2022, 5 pm.

NOAA

While Tropical Depression Maymay is projected to weaken, it continues to bring rain, along with the shear line

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Maymay is expected to weaken into a remnant low within 12 hours, the weather bureau said in its 5 pm bulletin on Wednesday, October 12.

So far, Maymay has maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

The tropical depression was last spotted 180 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, already moving west at 10 km/h after being almost stationary in the morning.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Maymay is heading for the eastern coast of Isabela or Aurora.

While Maymay is projected to weaken, it continues to bring rain, along with the shear line. Here is PAGASA’s rainfall forecast for Wednesday evening until early Thursday morning, October 13:

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain
  • Cagayan
  • northern part of Isabela
  • Apayao
  • Kalinga
  • Mountain Province
  • Ifugao
Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
  • Ilocos Region
  • rest of Cagayan Valley
  • rest of Cordillera Administrative Region

Floods and landslides are still possible.

In terms of winds, there are fewer areas remaining under Signal No. 1 since Maymay is set to weaken:

  • eastern part of Isabela (San Mariano, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, San Pablo, Ilagan City, Benito Soliven, San Agustin, Palanan, Divilacan, Jones, Maconacon, Tumauini, Echague, Cabagan)
  • eastern part of Quirino (Maddela, Nagtipunan, Aglipay, Saguday)
  • northern part of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dilasag, Dipaculao)

Strong winds are hitting areas under Signal No. 1.

PAGASA added that occasional gusts “associated with the enhanced northeasterly surface windflow and its convergence” with Maymay’s circulation may be experienced in these areas:

  • Batanes
  • Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
  • Cordillera Administrative Region
  • Ilocos Region

The weather bureau also issued a new gale warning at 5 pm on Wednesday due to Maymay and the surge of the northeasterly surface windflow. These seaboards have rough to very rough seas:

  • seaboards of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon (Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales) – waves 3.4 to 5.5 meters high
  • eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon (eastern coast of Polillo Island) – waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

The weather bureau added that the surge of the northeasterly surface windflow may cause moderate to rough seas in the western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon. Waves could be 1.5 to 3.5 meters high, making conditions risky for small vessels.

Meanwhile, the low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was located 650 kilometers west of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro, on Wednesday afternoon.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Raymond Ordinario said the LPA is likely to develop into a tropical depression, but it is moving away from the country.

Outside PAR, there are already two tropical depressions being monitored.

The first tropical depression was last spotted 1,925 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, moving northwest at 20 km/h.

It still has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

Ordinario said the tropical depression remains on course to enter PAR on Thursday. It is seen to move toward extreme Northern Luzon.

Meanwhile, the second tropical depression outside PAR was located 2,980 kilometers east of Southern Luzon, moving east southeast at 15 km/h. It has the same intensity as the first. Updates are expected in the coming days.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

  • October 2022 – 2 to 4
  • November 2022 – 2 or 3
  • December 2022 – 1 or 2
  • January 2023 – 0 or 1
  • February 2023 – 0 or 1
  • March 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.