Philippine tropical cyclones

Tropical Depression Maymay moving slowly toward Central Luzon

Acor Arceo
Tropical Depression Maymay moving slowly toward Central Luzon

TROPICAL CYCLONES. Satellite image of Tropical Depression Maymay inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and the tropical depression outside PAR, as of October 11, 2022, 11 pm.

NOAA

Tropical Depression Maymay and the shear line will continue to bring rain on Wednesday, October 12

MANILA, Philippines – After being almost stationary over the Philippine Sea on Tuesday afternoon, October 11, Tropical Depression Maymay started moving slowly in the evening, heading south southwest.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Tuesday that Maymay was located 270 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, or 320 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora.

The tropical depression maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

Maymay is expected to gradually accelerate toward Central Luzon on Wednesday, October 12. But due to its generally slow pace, it is now seen to make landfall in Aurora on Thursday morning, October 13.

The tropical depression will then cross Central Luzon. As it moves over landmass, it could be downgraded to a remnant low.

On Wednesday, Maymay and the shear line will continue to bring rain. PAGASA warned that floods and landslides are likely.

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain
  • Cagayan
  • Isabela
  • Apayao
  • Batanes
Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
  • rest of Cagayan Valley
  • rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
  • Aurora
  • Ilocos Norte

In terms of winds, Signal No. 1 remains raised for the following areas as of 11 pm on Tuesday:

  • Isabela
  • Quirino
  • Nueva Vizcaya
  • Aurora
  • Nueva Ecija
  • extreme northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands

Strong winds will hit areas under Signal No. 1.

PAGASA also said occasional gusts “associated with the enhanced northeasterly surface windflow and its convergence” with Maymay’s circulation may be experienced in these areas:

  • Batanes
  • Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
  • Cordillera Administrative Region
  • Ilocos Region
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As for coastal waters, the gale warning issued at 5 pm on Tuesday remains in effect. These seaboards have rough to very rough seas:

  • northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, northern coast of Ilocos Norte) – waves 3.4 to 5.5 meters high
  • western seaboard of Northern Luzon as well as eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon (western coast of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, eastern coast of Polillo Island) – waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

The weather bureau added that the surge of the northeasterly surface windflow may cause moderate to rough seas in the western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon. Waves could be 1.5 to 3.5 meters high, making conditions risky for small vessels.

Meanwhile, the tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was last spotted 2,140 kilometers east of Southeastern Luzon.

The tropical depression accelerated, moving north at 20 km/h from the previous 10 km/h.

It still has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

PAGASA said the tropical depression may enter PAR on Thursday morning or afternoon, then move west toward extreme Northern Luzon. It would be given the local name Neneng if it comes right after Maymay or no other tropical cyclone forms before it inside PAR.

Also on Thursday, it could strengthen into a tropical storm. “Further intensification is not ruled out,” added the weather bureau.

Batanes and several other provinces in Northern Luzon are highly likely to be placed under tropical cyclone wind signals. The highest possible wind signal would be Signal No. 2, if the tropical depression does become a tropical storm.

Heavy rain could begin in extreme Northern Luzon on Saturday, October 15.

The northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon may also have rough to very rough seas starting late Friday, October 14, or Saturday. Conditions would be risky for small vessels.

Maymay is the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the first for October, while the potential Neneng would be the 14th for the year and the second for the month.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

  • October 2022 – 2 to 4
  • November 2022 – 2 or 3
  • December 2022 – 1 or 2
  • January 2023 – 0 or 1
  • February 2023 – 0 or 1
  • March 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.