MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Obet slowed down late Friday morning, October 21, as it continued to move toward the Luzon Strait, which separates Luzon from Taiwan.

Obet was last spotted 205 kilometers east of Basco, Batanes, moving west at 20 kilometers per hour from the previous 30 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 am bulletin on Friday that Obet will keep moving west until Saturday, October 22.

The tropical depression is likely to pass over or very close to Batanes between Friday afternoon and evening, then leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday morning or afternoon.

So far, Obet has maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

It is projected to intensify into a tropical storm between early Saturday morning and afternoon, while on its way out of PAR, or possibly slightly earlier than that.

Rain from Obet will persist on Friday until early Saturday morning. Affected areas must stay on alert for floods and landslides.

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern part of Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Apayao
• northern part of mainland Cagayan

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Cagayan
• rest of Apayao
• rest of Ilocos Norte

Signal No. 1 is still up in the following areas as of 11 am on Friday:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)

Strong winds are expected in areas under Signal No. 1.

If Obet strengthens into a tropical storm before or during its passage through the Luzon Strait, Signal No. 2 could be raised.

A gale warning has also been in effect due to the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan and Obet since 5 am on Friday. Rough to very rough seas are expected in these seaboards:

• northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, northern coast of Ilocos Norte) – waves 3.4 to 5 meters high
• western seaboard of Northern Luzon (Ilocos Sur, western coast of Ilocos Norte) – waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

Moderate to rough seas, which could be risky for small vessels, are also likely in the following seaboards:

• seaboards of Central Luzon – waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high
• western and eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon – waves 1.2 to 3 meters high

Obet is the country’s 15th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the third for October.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

• October 2022 – 2 to 4
• November 2022 – 2 or 3
• December 2022 – 1 or 2
• January 2023 – 0 or 1
• February 2023 – 0 or 1
• March 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com