MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Obet is still too far to directly affect the country, but the shear line is bringing rain to parts of Northern Luzon on Wednesday, October 19.

In an advisory at 11 am on Wednesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the shear line will trigger moderate to heavy rain in these provinces:

• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Apayao
• Ilocos Norte
• Batanes

The shear line is the point where the northeasterly surface windflow and the easterlies meet.

PAGASA warned that floods and landslides are likely.

Meanwhile, in a press conference past 11 am, the weather bureau said Obet was last spotted 1,025 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon, moving north northwest at a slightly faster 15 kilometers per hour from the previous 10 km/h.

It is still projected to cross extreme Northern Luzon or the northern part of mainland Northern Luzon between Friday evening, October 21, and Saturday morning, October 22.

As of Wednesday morning, Obet continued to have maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. But it may strengthen into a tropical storm by late Friday or early Saturday.

“Further intensification is likely once Obet reaches the West Philippine Sea,” added PAGASA.

The weather bureau’s updated rainfall forecast indicates rain from Obet could begin early Friday. Areas to be affected must watch out for floods and landslides.

Early Friday morning, October 21, to Saturday morning, October 22

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Babuyan Islands
• Ilocos Norte
• Apayao
• northern part of mainland Cagayan

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Batanes
• northern part of Ilocos Sur
• Abra
• Kalinga
• rest of mainland Cagayan

Saturday morning to afternoon, October 22

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• Apayao
• northern part of Abra
• Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Ilocos Sur

Northern Luzon is still reeling from the effects of Neneng (Nesat), which made landfall in Cagayan province’s Calayan Island as a severe tropical storm last Sunday, October 16, then left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a typhoon.

In terms of winds, tropical cyclone wind signals may be raised for some areas in Northern Luzon starting Wednesday evening or Thursday morning, October 20.

The highest possible wind signal is Signal No. 2 since Obet is likely to become a tropical storm.

Even before the raising of wind signals, however, the northeasterly surface windflow is already bringing strong to gale-force winds to the following areas on Wednesday:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern part of mainland Cagayan
• northern part of Apayao
• northern part of Ilocos Norte

A gale warning has also been in effect since 5 am on Wednesday due to the surge of the northeasterly surface windflow. Rough to very rough seas are expected in these seaboards:

• northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, northern coast of Ilocos Norte) – waves 3.4 to 6 meters high
• western seaboard of Northern Luzon (western coast of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan) – waves 3.4 to 5.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

The surge of the northeasterly surface windflow and Obet may also trigger moderate to rough seas, which could be risky for small vessels, in the following seaboards:

• seaboards of Central Luzon – waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high
• western and eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon – waves 1.2 to 3 meters high

Obet may exit PAR on Sunday morning, October 23.

It is the country’s 15th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the third for October.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

• October 2022 – 2 to 4
• November 2022 – 2 or 3
• December 2022 – 1 or 2
• January 2023 – 0 or 1
• February 2023 – 0 or 1
• March 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com