Philippine tropical cyclones

Signal No. 1 raised due to Tropical Depression Obet

Acor Arceo
Signal No. 1 raised due to Tropical Depression Obet

OBET. Satellite image of Tropical Depression Obet as of October 20, 2022, 5 am.

NOAA

Tropical Depression Obet maintains its strength over the Philippine Sea in the early hours of Thursday, October 20

MANILA, Philippines – Signal No. 1 was raised due to Tropical Depression Obet for the first time at 5 am on Thursday, October 20, to warn residents of strong winds arriving in 36 hours.

Obet was last spotted 805 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon, moving west southwest over the Philippine Sea at a slightly faster 15 kilometers per hour from the previous 10 km/h.

It maintained its strength, with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) sees Obet moving west southwest while accelerating until noon on Friday, October 21, then turning west or west northwest toward Northern Luzon or the Luzon Strait.

It is still expected to cross extreme Northern Luzon or the northern part of mainland Northern Luzon between Friday evening and Saturday morning, October 22. During this time, it may also intensify into a tropical storm.

“Further intensification is likely once Obet reaches the West Philippine Sea,” added the weather bureau.

The following areas are under Signal No. 1:

  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)

The highest possible wind signal is Signal No. 2 since Obet is likely to become a tropical storm.

But strong to gale-force winds are already being experienced in the northernmost parts of Luzon due to the northeasterly surface windflow, particularly in these areas:

  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • northern part of mainland Cagayan
  • northern part of Apayao
  • northern part of Ilocos Norte

Obet will also be bringing rain early Friday morning to Saturday morning. Here is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast for that period:

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain
  • Babuyan Islands
  • Ilocos Norte
  • Apayao
  • northern part of mainland Cagayan
Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
  • Batanes
  • northern part of Ilocos Sur
  • Abra
  • Kalinga
  • rest of mainland Cagayan

Even before the rain from Obet, however, parts of Luzon have already been dealing with rain from the shear line. The shear line, which is the point where the northeasterly surface windflow and the easterlies meet, may trigger rain in these areas on Thursday:

  • Cagayan Valley
  • Cordillera Administrative Region
  • Ilocos Region
  • Central Luzon
  • northern part of Quezon including Polillo Islands

Floods and landslides are possible in areas affected by the shear line and areas to be affected by the tropical depression.

Meanwhile, PAGASA issued a new gale warning at 5 am on Thursday. Rough to very rough seas are expected in these seaboards:

  • northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon (Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, northern coast of Ilocos Norte) – waves 3.4 to 6 meters high
  • western seaboard of Northern Luzon (western coast of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan) – waves 3.4 to 5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

The surge of the northeasterly surface windflow and Obet may also trigger moderate to rough seas, which could be risky for small vessels, in the following seaboards:

  • seaboards of Central Luzon – waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high
  • western and eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon – waves 1.2 to 3 meters high

Obet may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday.

It is the country’s 15th tropical cyclone for 2022 and the third for October.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

  • October 2022 – 2 to 4
  • November 2022 – 2 or 3
  • December 2022 – 1 or 2
  • January 2023 – 0 or 1
  • February 2023 – 0 or 1
  • March 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com

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author

Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.