The low pressure area inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression at 2 pm on Tuesday, October 13.

It was given the local name Ofel, as the country’s 15th tropical cyclone for 2020. It is also the 2nd tropical cyclone for October, coming just a day after the exit of Tropical Storm Nika (Nangka), which triggered rain and enhanced the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.

In a bulletin issued 5 pm on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Ofel is located 115 kilometers east southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.

The tropical depression is moving north northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h), a direction it is expected to maintain until Wednesday afternoon, October 14.

PAGASA said Ofel could make landfall in the Eastern Samar-Northern Samar area on Wednesday morning. Then, by Wednesday afternoon, it may already be crossing the southern part of Southern Luzon.

At the moment, Ofel has maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

“It will likely remain in tropical depression category while traversing the southern portion of Southern Luzon. It is forecast to reach tropical storm category within 48 hours once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea,” the state weather bureau said.

For the rest of Tuesday until Wednesday morning, PAGASA warned rain would hit Bicol and Eastern Visayas. Floods and landslides are possible.

Moderate to heavy rain

• Catanduanes
• Masbate including Ticao Island
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• northern part of Leyte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Bicol
• rest of Eastern Visayas

As for winds, Signal No. 1 has been raised in some areas. PAGASA said “occasional gusts” may be experienced in these places under Signal No. 1:

• Sorsogon
• Northern Samar
• northern part of Eastern Samar (Borongan City, San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
• northern part of Samar (Pinabacdao, Villareal, Talalora, Daram, Zumarraga, Calbiga, Hinabangan, Paranas,San Sebastian, Motiong, Jiabong, Catbalogan City, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Tarangnan, Gandara, Pagsanghan, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Niño, Almagro, Tagapul-an)

The state weather bureau also warned of moderate to rough waters in the seaboards of Luzon and Eastern Visayas. It advised small vessels to take precautionary measures.

Ofel is forecast to exit PAR on Friday, October 16. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Image from PAGASA

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com