Tropical Depression Ofel was slowly moving toward the Eastern Samar-Northern Samar area early Tuesday evening, October 13, while maintaining its strength.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in an 8 pm bulletin that Ofel is located 95 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.

The tropical depression is slowly moving west, even slower than its speed of 15 kilometers per hour (km/h) on Tuesday afternoon.

Ofel is projected to make landfall in the Eastern Samar-Northern Samar area on Wednesday morning, October 14, and then over Sorsogon on Wednesday afternoon. Following these two landfalls, it is seen to cross the southern part of Southern Luzon and then emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Thursday afternoon, October 15.

So far, Ofel continues to have maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. It is likely to hit and cross land as a tropical depression, according to PAGASA, then intensify into a tropical storm within 48 hours once it is already over the West Philippine Sea.

PAGASA gave an updated rainfall forecast as of 8 pm, covering the rest of Tuesday evening until Wednesday afternoon. Floods and landslides are possible.

Moderate to heavy rain

• Bicol
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• northern part of Leyte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Eastern Visayas
• Quezon
• Romblon

More areas were also placed under Signal No. 1 as of 8 pm. PAGASA said “occasional gusts” may be experienced in these places under Signal No. 1:

• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• northern part of Leyte (Tabango, Leyte, San Isidro, Calubian, Capoocan, Carigara, Jaro, Pastrana, Dagami, Tabontabon, Tanauan, Palo, Santa Fe, Alangalang, Tacloban City, Babatngon, San Miguel, Barugo, Tunga)

The state weather bureau also warned of moderate to rough waters in the seaboards of Luzon and Eastern Visayas. It advised small vessels to take precautionary measures.

Ofel is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday, October 16. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Image from PAGASA

Ofel is the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 2nd for October.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com