A tropical depression that developed outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) could enter within the week, but landfall is unlikely based on initial projections.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in an advisory at 11 am on Tuesday, April 13, that the tropical depression was located 1,475 kilometers east of Mindanao.

It is moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h), but it is seen to slow down and become almost stationary by Wednesday, April 14.

After that, it could accelerate – in a west northwest direction again – and enter PAR either on Friday, April 16, or Saturday, April 17.

If it does enter PAR, it would be given the local name Bising. At the moment, it has no international name since only tropical storms and above get assigned international names. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

As of Tuesday morning, the tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

But it is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, according to PAGASA.

It could also eventually intensify into a severe tropical storm by Friday, and then into a typhoon by Saturday.

Despite this, PAGASA said the potential Bising “is unlikely to affect any portion of the country” in the next 5 days. This is due to its distance from land.

The state weather bureau earlier said that the tropical cyclone could recurve after entering PAR and move back out. It is unlikely to make landfall.

Note that these are early forecasts, however, and may still change. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

The Philippines is currently experiencing its hot dry season, popularly called “summer,” but this does not mean that tropical cyclones are impossible.

So far, the country has had only one tropical cyclone in 2021. Auring (Dujuan), which struck in February, reached severe tropical storm status but eventually hit land as a tropical depression.

For the next 6 months, these are PAGASA’s latest predictions for the number of tropical cyclones:

• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 1 to 3
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 or 3

– Rappler.com