Signal No. 1 was raised in parts of the provinces of Isabela and Aurora late Monday morning, October 19, due to the faster-moving Tropical Depression Pepito.

In its 11 am bulletin on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Pepito is now 475 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes.

The tropical depression accelerated, now moving west at 30 kilometers per hour (km/h) from its earlier speed of 20 km/h.

PAGASA still expects Pepito to turn westward on Tuesday, October 20, toward the Northern Luzon-Central Luzon area. It could make landfall in the eastern coast of either Northern Luzon or Central Luzon between Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning, October 21, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday morning.

Pepito maintained its strength as of Monday morning, with maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. But PAGASA said it is likely to intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall.

Pepito could also strengthen further once it is already over the West Philippine Sea, possibly becoming a severe tropical storm by Thursday, October 22.

As of 11 am on Monday, Signal No. 1 is now up in these areas:

• eastern part of Isabela (Palanan, Dinapigue, eastern part of San Mariano)
• northern part of Aurora (Dinalungan, Casiguran, Dilasag)

Note that tropical cyclone wind signals pertain to winds, not rainfall. PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 1 “may experience occasional gusts in the next 36 hours.”

PAGASA added that the northeasterly surface windflow partly enhanced by Pepito may bring “strong-force to near gale-force winds with occasional gusts” to these areas:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• coastal and mountainous areas of the northern part of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar

As for rainfall, PAGASA provided this forecast for the rest of Monday:

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Quezon
• Bicol
• Eastern Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
• Caraga
• Davao Oriental
• Davao Occidental
• Sultan Kudarat
• South Cotabato
• Sarangani

PAGASA warned that floods and landslides could occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

A gale warning remains in effect due to the northeasterly surface windflow in the seaboards of the following provinces:

• Batanes
• Cagayan
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• Isabela

Travel is risky as seas are rough to very rough, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high.

There will also be moderate to rough seas due to Pepito and the northeasterly surface windflow in the following areas:

• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Bicol
• seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar

PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures as waves could reach 1.5 to 3 meters high.

Since Pepito accelerated, it could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as early as Thursday morning.

Image from PAGASA

Pepito is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 3rd for October.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com