The low pressure area (LPA) east of Catanduanes developed into a tropical depression at 2 am on Monday, October 19.
It was given the local name Pepito, as the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2020. It is also the 3rd tropical cyclone for October.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin issued 5 am that Pepito is located 820 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes.
The tropical depression is moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).
PAGASA said Pepito is expected to turn more westward on Tuesday, October 20, toward the Northern Luzon-Central Luzon area. It could make landfall in the eastern coast of either Northern Luzon or Central Luzon on Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, October 21, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Pepito currently has maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.
“It will likely remain a tropical depression over the next 36 hours and may make landfall as a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm,” PAGASA said.
But once it is already over the West Philippine Sea, it may reach severe tropical storm category by Friday, October 23, added the state weather bureau.
For Monday, PAGASA gave the rainfall forecast below.
Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
- Quezon
- Bicol
- Eastern Visayas
- Zamboanga Peninsula
- Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
- Dinagat Islands
- Surigao del Norte
- Surigao del Sur
- Davao Oriental
- Davao Occidental
- Sultan Kudarat
- South Cotabato
- Sarangani
PAGASA warned that floods and landslides could occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)
There are no tropical cyclone wind signals raised yet since Pepito is still far from land. But PAGASA said the northeasterly surface windflow partly enhanced by the tropical depression may bring “strong-force to near gale-force winds with occasional gusts” to these areas:
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands
- coastal and mountainous areas of the northern part of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar
The northeasterly surface windflow also prompted the issuance of a gale warning for the seaboards of the following provinces:
- Batanes
- Cagayan
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- Isabela
Travel is risky as seas are rough to very rough, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high.
There will also be moderate to rough seas due to Pepito and the northeasterly surface windflow in the following areas:
- eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Bicol
- seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar
PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures as waves could reach 1.5 to 3 meters high.
Based on its latest forecast track, Pepito could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by early Friday.
An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)
PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:
- October 2020 – 2 or 3
- November 2020 – 1 or 2
- December 2020 – 1 or 2
- January 2021 – 1 or 2
- February 2021 – 0 or 1
- March 2021 – 0 or 1
Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com
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