Philippine tropical cyclones

Tropical Depression Pepito slightly intensifies, more areas under Signal No. 1

Acor Arceo

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Tropical Depression Pepito slightly intensifies, more areas under Signal No. 1

Image from NOAA

Areas under Signal No. 1 as of 5 pm on Monday, October 19, will have strong winds from Tropical Depression Pepito within 36 hours

Tropical Depression Pepito slightly intensified and slowed down as it continued to move toward the Northern Luzon-Central Luzon area on Monday afternoon, October 19.

Pepito was last spotted 410 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a bulletin issued 5 pm on Monday.

The tropical depression is moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h), slower than its previous speed of 30 km/h.

PAGASA said Pepito could make landfall in the eastern coast of either Northern Luzon or Central Luzon between Tuesday evening, October 20, and early Wednesday morning, October 21, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday morning.

At the moment, Pepito has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It previously had maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

PAGASA said Pepito is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm before hitting land. Then, after crossing Luzon, it could gain more strength over the West Philippine Sea and intensify into a severe tropical storm by Thursday, October 22.

For Monday evening until Tuesday morning, PAGASA issued the updated rainfall forecast below. It stressed that rain from Pepito might trigger floods and landslides. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
  • Quezon
  • Bicol
  • Eastern Visayas
  • Central Visayas
  • Mindanao

In terms of winds, more areas in Luzon were placed under Signal No. 1 as of 5 pm on Monday. The following areas were told to expect “strong- to near gale-force winds” within 36 hours:

  • Isabela
  • Aurora
  • Quirino
  • eastern part of Kalinga (Pinukpuk, Rizal, Tabuk City, Tanudan)
  • eastern part of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Natonin, Barlig)
  • Ifugao
  • Nueva Vizcaya
  • eastern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, San Jose City, Lupao, Llanera, Rizal, Bongabon, Laur, Gabaldon, General Mamerto Natividad, Palayan City, General Tinio, Cabanatuan City, Santa Rosa, Muñoz City, Talavera, Santo Domingo, Peñaranda, Gapan City, San Leonardo)
  • northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real)

PAGASA added that the northeasterly surface windflow partly enhanced by Pepito may bring “strong-force to near gale-force winds with occasional gusts” to these areas:

  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • coastal and mountainous areas of the northern part of Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar

Also due to the northeasterly surface windflow, PAGASA maintained its gale warning for the seaboards of the following provinces:

  • Batanes
  • Cagayan
  • Ilocos Norte
  • Ilocos Sur
  • Isabela

Travel is risky as seas are rough to very rough, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high.

Moderate to rough seas due to Pepito and the northeasterly surface windflow will also persist in the following areas:

  • eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Bicol
  • seaboards of Northern Samar and Eastern Samar

PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures as waves could reach 1.5 to 3 meters high.

Based on its latest forecast track, Pepito could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday afternoon.

Forecast track of Tropical Depression Pepito as of October 19, 2020, 5 pm.
Image from PAGASA

Pepito is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 3rd for October.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

  • October 2020 – 2 or 3
  • November 2020 – 1 or 2
  • December 2020 – 1 or 2
  • January 2021 – 1 or 2
  • February 2021 – 0 or 1
  • March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña– Rappler.com

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.