Tropical Depression Pepito sped up a bit before dawn on Tuesday, October 20, while still making its way to the Northern Luzon-Central Luzon area.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 5 am bulletin on Tuesday that Pepito is now 440 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon.

The tropical depression is moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h), slightly faster than the previous 20 km/h.

PAGASA said Pepito is forecast to make landfall either in Aurora or Isabela on Tuesday night, cross the Luzon landmass, and then emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday morning, October 21.

So far, Pepito continues to have maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It could hit land either as a tropical depression or as a tropical storm, and then after crossing Luzon, reach severe tropical storm category by Thursday, October 22.

Below is PAGASA’s latest rainfall forecast for Tuesday. All 8 regions in Luzon will experience rain, along with a region in the Visayas and 3 regions in Mindanao.

Moderate to heavy rain

• Bicol
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Quezon
• Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Isabela
• mainland Cagayan
• Pangasinan
• Benguet

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Mimaropa
• rest of Calabarzon
• rest of Central Luzon
• rest of Cagayan Valley
• rest of Ilocos Region
• rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
• Metro Manila
• Western Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
• Northern Mindanao

Floods and landslides are possible in areas set to be affected by Pepito. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

In terms of winds, the following areas are under Signal No. 1 as of 5 am on Tuesday:

• Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• Tarlac
• Zambales
• Bulacan
• Pampanga
• Bataan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real) including Polillo Island
• extreme northern part of Camarines Norte (Vinzons)
• Catanduanes

PAGASA said “high winds (strong to near gale)” will be experienced in areas under Signal No. 1.

There will also be “high winds to gale-force winds with occasional gusts” due to the northeasterly surface windflow in:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• coastal and/or mountainous areas of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte

Meanwhile, a gale warning remains in effect for the seaboards of the following provinces, due to rough to very rough seas with waves 2.8 to 5 meters high:

• Batanes
• Cagayan
• Isabela
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur

In seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1, waters are rough to very rough as well, and waves could reach 2.5 to 4.5 meters high. Travel is risky, especially for those using small vessels.

There are also moderate to rough seas, with waves 1.5 to 3 meters high, in these seaboards:

• western and eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon
• eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region

Precautionary measures are needed for small vessels, said PAGASA. It added that “inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.”

Based on its latest forecast track, Pepito could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning.

Image from PAGASA

Pepito is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 3rd for October.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com