Philippine tropical cyclones

Tropical Depression Tonyo to hit Quezon or Batangas after Marinduque landfall

Acor Arceo
Tropical Depression Tonyo to hit Quezon or Batangas after Marinduque landfall

Image from NOAA

Tropical Depression Tonyo is 40 kilometers south southwest of Tayabas, Quezon, early Sunday morning, November 8

Tropical Depression Tonyo made its 2nd landfall in Torrijos, Marinduque, at 4:30 am on Sunday, November 8.

Its first landfall was in Ticao Island, Masbate, at 9 pm on Saturday, November 7.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 8 am bulletin on Sunday that Tonyo was already over Tayabas Bay, located 70 kilometers southwest of Alabat, Quezon, or 40 kilometers south southwest of Tayabas, Quezon.

The tropical depression continues to move west northwest toward the southern Quezon-Batangas area at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It was set to make its 3rd landfall either in Sariaya, Quezon, or San Juan, Batangas. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

The tropical depression maintained its strength early Sunday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 60 km/h.

As of 8 am on Sunday, there are no more areas in the Visayas under Signal No. 1, but more areas in Luzon have been added to the list. This is the latest:

  • Camarines Norte
  • western part of Camarines Sur (Cabusao, Libmanan, Sipocot, Lupi, Ragay, Del Gallego, Pamplona, Pasacao)
  • Quezon including Polillo Island
  • Cavite
  • Laguna
  • Rizal
  • Batangas
  • Metro Manila
  • Bataan
  • Bulacan
  • Pampanga
  • southern part of Nueva Ecija (General Tinio, Santa Rosa, Zaragoza, Gabaldon, Laur, Palayan City, Cabanatuan City, Aliaga, Quezon, Licab, Peñaranda, Gapan City, San Leonardo, Jaen, San Isidro, Cabiao, San Antonio)
  • southern part of Tarlac (Victoria, Pura, Gerona, Santa Ignacia, Mayantoc, La Paz, Concepcion, Tarlac City, San Jose, Bamban, Capas)
  • southern part of Aurora (Dingalan)
  • central and southern parts of Zambales (Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Marcelino, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City)
  • Marinduque
  • northern part of Romblon (Romblon, San Andres, Calatrava, San Agustin, Corcuera, Banton, Concepcion)
  • northern and central parts of Oriental Mindoro (Bongabong, Gloria, Pinamalayan, Socorro, Pola, Naujan, Victoria, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)
  • northern and central parts of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island

PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 1 are “currently experiencing or will be experiencing strong breeze to near gale conditions with occasional gusts throughout the passage of Tonyo.”

The northeast monsoon or hanging amihan will also bring strong breeze to near gale conditions to these areas:

  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • Ilocos Norte
  • Apayao
  • northern part of mainland Cagayan

The rain from Tonyo appears to be starting to ease, though it may still be heavy at times.

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
  • Ilocos Region
  • Cordillera Administrative Region
  • Cagayan Valley
  • Central Luzon
  • Metro Manila
  • Calabarzon
  • Oriental Mindoro
  • Occidental Mindoro
  • Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands

The tropical depression and the easterlies are causing moderate to rough seas as well, with waves 1.5 to 3.5 meters high, in the following seaboards:

  • seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1
  • eastern seaboards of Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and northern part of Quezon
  • northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes

PAGASA advised small vessels to take precautionary measures and “inexperienced mariners” to “avoid navigating in these conditions.”

There will also be rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.5 to 4.5 meters high, due to the northeast monsoon here:

  • seaboards of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur
  • northern seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands

Travel is risky, especially for small vessels.

Tonyo is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday morning or afternoon, then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday morning, November 9.

Forecast track of Tropical Depression Tonyo as of November 8, 2020, 8 am.
Image from PAGASA

Tonyo is the Philippines’ 20th tropical cyclone for 2020. An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year, which means the figure for 2020 will likely be above average with almost two months still left in the year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

For the next 6 months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for tropical cyclones inside PAR:

  • November 2020 – 1 to 3
  • December 2020 – 2 or 3
  • January 2021 – 0 or 1
  • February 2021 – 0 or 1
  • March 2021 – 0 or 1
  • April 2021 – 0 or 1

La Niña has been underway since October, which means “above normal rainfall” in the coming months.

The northeast monsoon began in November, signaling “surges of cold temperatures.”

PAGASA warned that La Niña may enhance the northeast monsoon, which could trigger floods and landslides. – Rappler.com

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author

Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.