Tropical Depression Vicky emerged over the Bohol Sea late Friday evening, December 18, exiting land through Misamis Oriental.

Vicky had made landfall in Baganga, Davao Oriental, at 2 pm on Friday. After hitting Davao Oriental, it also crossed Davao de Oro, Agusan del Sur, and Misamis Oriental.

Based on the bulletin released by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) at 11 pm on Friday, the tropical depression is already 75 kilometers west northwest of El Salvador City, Misamis Oriental, or 75 kilometers east of Dipolog City, Zamboanga.

Vicky accelerated further, now moving west northwest toward the Sulu Sea at 40 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 30 km/h.

PAGASA said there remains the possibility of another landfall, either in the Siquijor-Negros Oriental area or the Misamis Occidental-Zamboanga del Norte area before the tropical depression reaches the Sulu Sea.

Afterwards, Vicky is projected to cross the northern or central part of Palawan between Saturday afternoon and evening, December 19.

While crossing parts of the Philippines, Vicky will likely remain a tropical depression, according to PAGASA. So far, it continues to have maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h, while its gustiness is up to 70 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

But once Vicky has crossed Palawan and is already over the West Philippine Sea, “the likelihood of intensification is forecast to increase,” said the state weather bureau.

Below is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast for Vicky and the tail-end of a frontal system or shear line. It stressed that more floods and landslides may occur, as the rain could be intense.

Between Friday evening, December 18, and Saturday evening, December 19

Heavy to intense rain

• Eastern Visayas

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of Visayas
• Bicol
• southern part of Quezon
• northern and central parts of Palawan including Calamian, Cuyo, and Cagayancillo Islands
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Agusan del Norte
• Camiguin

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Quezon
• Aurora
• mainland Cagayan Valley
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Oriental Mindoro
• rest of Caraga
• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Zamboanga Peninsula

Between Saturday evening, December 19, and Sunday evening, December 20

Heavy to intense rain

• Bicol

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Quezon
• mainland Cagayan Valley
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• northern and central parts of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands
• Oriental Mindoro
• Eastern Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Calabarzon
• rest of Mimaropa
• Antique
• Aklan

Meanwhile, here are the areas where Signal No. 1 is raised as of 11 pm on Friday:

• northern and central parts of Palawan (Araceli, Dumaran, Taytay, El Nido, San Vicente, Roxas, Puerto Princesa City, Aborlan, Narra, Quezon) including Calamian, Cuyo, Cagayancillo, and Kalayaan Islands
• central and southern parts of Cebu (Tuburan, Carmen, Asturias, Danao City, Compostela, Liloan, Consolacion, Mandaue City, Lapu-Lapu City, Cordoba, Balamban, Cebu City, Talisay City, Minglanilla, Toledo City, Pinamungahan, Naga City, San Fernando, Aloguinsan, Carcar, Barili, Sibonga, Dumanjug, Ronda, Alcantara, Moalboal, Argao, Dalaguete, Badian, Alegria, Alcoy, Boljoon, Oslob, Malabuyoc, Ginatilan, Samboan, Santander)
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Negros Oriental
• Negros Occidental
• Guimaras
• central and southern parts of Iloilo (Ajuy, Barotac Viejo, San Enrique, San Rafael, Passi City, Bingawan, Calinog, Lambunao, Janiuay, Banate, Anilao, Dingle, Duenas, Badiangan, Barotac Nuevo, Zarraga, Pototan, Dumangas, Mina, New Lucena, Santa Barbara, Leganes, Iloilo City, Pavia, Cabatuan, Maasin, Alimodian, San Miguel, Leon, Oton, Tigbauan, Tubungan, Guimbal, Igbaras, Miagao, San Joaquin)
• southern part of Antique (Valderrama, San Remigio, Sibalom, Hamtic, Tobias Fornier, Anini-y, Bugasong, Laua-an, Patnongon, San Jose, Belison)
• Misamis Oriental
• Misamis Occidental
• Lanao del Norte
• Bukidnon
• Camiguin
• Lanao del Sur
• northwestern part of North Cotabato (Pigkawayan, Libungan, Banisilan, Carmen, Midsayap, Aleosan, Alamada)
• northern part of Maguindanao (Datu Odin Sinsuat, Kabuntalan, Northern Kabuntalan, Sultan Kudarat, Sultan Mastura, Parang, Matanog, Barira, Buldon)
• Cotabato City
• northern and central parts of Zamboanga del Norte (Siocon, Baliguian, Gutalac, Kalawit, Labason, Tampilisan, Liloy, Godod, Bacungan, Salug, Sindangan, Siayan, Manukan, Jose Dalman, Sergio Osmeña Sr, President Manuel A. Roxas, Katipunan, Dipolog City, Pinan, Mutia, La Libertad, Polanco, Rizal, Sibutad, Dapitan City)
• Zamboanga del Sur
• Zamboanga Sibugay

PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 1 will have “strong breeze to near gale conditions.” But it noted that gusty conditions are also likely in most parts of Luzon and the Visayas which are not under Signal No. 1, due to the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan. Coastal and mountainous areas, most especially, would be affected.

Vicky and the surge of the northeast monsoon will continue to affect coastal waters in the next 24 hours as well. Travel remains risky.

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.5 to 4.5 meters high)

• entire seaboards of Northern Luzon
• seaboard of Aurora
• eastern seaboard of Quezon including Polillo Islands
• seaboard of Camarines Norte
• northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
• northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes
• eastern seaboard of Albay including Rapu-Rapu Islands
• eastern seaboard of Sorsogon
• northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar
• eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar including Homonhon Island
• eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands
• eastern seaboard of Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
• seaboard of Surigao del Sur
• eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental

Moderate to rough seas (waves 2 to 4 meters high)

• coastal waters of areas under Signal No. 1
• seaboard of Agusan del Norte
• remaining seaboards of Surigao del Norte
• remaining seaboards of Dinagat Islands

Vicky is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon or evening, December 20.

Image from PAGASA

Vicky is the Philippines’ 22nd tropical cyclone for 2020 – exceeding the yearly average of 20 – and the 1st for December. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

For December 2020 and January-June 2021, these are PAGASA’s estimates for tropical cyclones inside PAR:

• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 0 or 1
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1
• April 2021 – 0 or 1
• May 2021 – 0 or 1
• June 2021 – 1 or 2

La Niña has been underway since October, causing more rain than usual in the country. – Rappler.com