There are now areas under a tropical cyclone wind signal due to Tropical Storm Auring (Dujuan), which gained more strength on Thursday evening, February 18.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Thursday that the following areas in the Davao Region are now under Signal No. 1:

• Davao Oriental
• eastern part of Davao de Oro (Pantukan, Maragusan, Compostela, New Bataan)

Tropical cyclone wind signals refer to wind and not rainfall. Areas placed under Signal No. 1 can expect winds of 30 to 60 km/h or “strong breeze to near-gale conditions” in at least 36 hours.

Auring now has maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h from the previous 80 km/h.

PAGASA warned that Auring may further strengthen into a severe tropical storm in the next 48 hours. For now, it is “less likely” to reach typhoon category.

As of late Thursday evening, Auring was located 605 kilometers east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, slowly moving west. PAGASA said it may gradually accelerate Friday evening, February 19, or Saturday morning, February 20.

Based on its latest direction and speed, Auring may make landfall in the eastern coast of the region of Caraga on Sunday, February 21. It would then cross Caraga, the Visayas, and Mimaropa on Sunday and on Monday, February 22, according to PAGASA.

Though Auring’s projected landfall is still around two days away, PAGASA said its trough or extension may already bring scattered thunderstorms to Caraga and the Davao Region on Friday.

The rain is expected to worsen on Saturday, particularly in the areas listed below.

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Caraga
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro

Moderate to heavy rain

• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Misamis Oriental
• Camiguin
• Bukidnon
• Davao del Norte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Central Visayas
• Northern Samar
• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Lanao del Sur
• Cotabato
• Davao City

PAGASA warned that scattered to widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides could occur. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Image from PAGASA

As for coastal waters, these are the expected conditions on Friday:

Rough to high seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• eastern seaboard of Mindanao (waves 3 to 6.5 meters high)

Rough to very rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• seaboards of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboards of Central Luzon (waves 3 to 5.5 meters high)
• Southern Luzon (waves 4 to 5.5 meters high)
• Visayas (waves 3.5 to 6 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

PAGASA added that the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan is bringing strong breeze to near-gale conditions over Northern Luzon and the eastern parts of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.

The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo-Typhoon Center had assigned Auring’s international name, Dujuan. PAGASA said China contributed the name, which means azalea.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com