Tropical Storm Auring (Dujuan) became almost stationary off Mindanao on Friday evening, February 19, while maintaining its strength.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Friday that Auring was located 435 kilometers east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. It is barely moving, but may eventually accelerate over the next 3 days.

Auring continues to have maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour (km/h) and gustiness of up to 105 km/h. Earlier on Friday morning, it had strengthened into a severe tropical storm, but reverted to tropical storm category in the afternoon. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA now predicts it is more likely for Auring to stay a tropical storm as it passes through parts of the Philippines, and then later weaken into a tropical depression by Tuesday, February 23.

But the state weather bureau is not yet ruling out the possibility that Auring could strengthen again into a severe tropical storm before hitting land.

With Auring’s slow pace, its potential landfall in the region of Caraga may happen Sunday morning or afternoon, February 21. It is expected to cross the Visayas and Mimaropa for the rest of Sunday until Monday morning, February 22.

Much of Mindanao and the Visayas, as well as some areas in Luzon, should watch out for floods and landslides due to rain from Auring in the next 3 days.

Until Saturday morning, February 20

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Caraga
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Bukidnon
• Misamis Oriental
• Southern Leyte

Saturday morning, February 20, until Sunday morning, February 21

Heavy to intense rain

• Surigao del Norte
• Dinagat Islands

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of Caraga
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Misamis Oriental
• Camiguin

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Eastern Visayas
• Central Visayas
• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Lanao del Sur
• Cotabato
• Davao City

Sunday morning, February 21, until Monday morning, February 22

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Visayas
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• northern part of Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Misamis Oriental
• Camiguin
• Catanduanes
• Camarines Sur
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate
• Romblon

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Caraga
• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Basilan
• Lanao del Sur
• Maguindanao
• Cotabato City
• Cotabato
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• rest of Bicol
• southern part of Quezon
• Marinduque

The list of areas under Signal No. 1 was also expanded as of 11 pm on Friday, now covering 25 areas. Tropical cyclone wind signals refer to wind, not rainfall.

• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu
• Negros Oriental
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Misamis Occidental
• Lanao del Norte
• Bukidnon
• Lanao del Sur

PAGASA said Auring and the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan combined will bring strong to gale-force winds on Saturday, February 20, to areas under Signal No. 1 as well as to the rest of the Visayas, Bicol, Calabarzon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern part of Palawan, including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands.

The state weather bureau added that strong breeze to near-gale conditions are likely in the rest of Luzon.

The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal expected from Auring is Signal No. 2, based on PAGASA’s current data.

Image from PAGASA

The state weather bureau also updated its forecast for coastal waters.

Rough to high seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1 (waves 2.8 to 7 meters high)

Rough to very rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and remaining seaboards of Visayas (waves 2.8 to 5 meters high)

Rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• northern and western seaboards of Mindanao, and remaining seaboards of Luzon (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Auring is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com