After intensifying into a severe tropical storm on Friday morning, February 19, Auring (Dujuan) weakened back into a tropical storm at 2 pm.

But the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) also said Auring could strengthen again into a severe tropical storm before making landfall.

“Typhoon category – maliit po ang tsansa. But regardless, kailangan paghandaan po natin ang pag-landfall at pagtawid nitong bagyong si Auring sa ating bansa,” said PAGASA Senior Weather Specialist Chris Perez in a briefing past 5 pm on Friday.

(Typhoon category – the chances are slim. But regardless, we have to prepare for Auring’s landfall and passage through parts of our country.)

Auring is already 405 kilometers east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. It sped up a bit and is now moving west at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h), though this is still relatively slow.

The tropical storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and gustiness of up to 105 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Auring is still forecast to make landfall in the eastern coast of the region of Caraga on Sunday morning, February 21. Once it makes landfall, it is likely to cross Caraga, the Visayas, and Mimaropa from Sunday to Monday, February 22.

PAGASA added that when Auring crosses land, it could weaken “due to significant terrain interaction and dry air intrusion from the northeast monsoon” or hanging amihan.

Despite the latest downgrade, the state weather bureau warned that Auring will still trigger intense rain which may cause floods and landslides.

Below is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast for the rest of Friday and the coming weekend.

Until Friday evening, February 19

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Caraga
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte

Saturday, February 20

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Caraga
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Eastern Visayas
• Central Visayas
• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Lanao del Sur
• Cotabato
• Davao City

Sunday, February 21

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Catanduanes
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Masbate
• Visayas
• Caraga
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Romblon
• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Lanao del Sur
• Cotabato
• Davao City
• Davao del Norte
• Davao de Oro
• Davao Oriental

Meanwhile, more areas were placed under Signal No. 1 as of 5 pm on Friday.

• Southern Leyte
• southeastern part of Eastern Samar (Guiuan including Homonhon Island)
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• western part of Misamis Oriental (Balingasag, Balingoan, Binuangan, Claveria, Gingoog City, Jasaan, Kinoguitan, Lagonglong, Magsaysay, Medina, Salay, Sugbongcogon, Tagoloan, Talisayan, Villanueva)
• western part of Bukidnon (Cabanglasan, Impasug-ong, Lantapan, Malaybalay City, Malitbog, Manolo Fortich, Maramag, Quezon, San Fernando, Sumilao, Valencia City)

PAGASA said the areas under Signal No. 1 may experience “strong breeze to near-gale conditions” due to Auring starting Saturday, February 20, at the earliest.

Note, however, that the surge of the northeast monsoon has already been causing similar windy conditions in Northern Luzon and the eastern parts of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

PAGASA said it might raise Signal No. 2 over Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental in its next bulletin at 11 pm on Friday.

Image from PAGASA

Coastal waters may be dangerous in the next 24 hours.

Rough to high seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• eastern seaboard of Mindanao (waves 3 to 7 meters high)

Rough to very rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• seaboards of Luzon and Visayas, and northern seaboard of Mindanao (waves 2.8 to 5 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Auring is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com