The state weather bureau warned of heavy to intense rain in the region of Caraga and the province of Eastern Samar, as Tropical Storm Auring (Dujuan) maintained its strength over the Philippine Sea on Saturday morning, February 20.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 am bulletin on Saturday that Auring is now 595 kilometers east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

After staying almost stationary overnight, the tropical storm is finally moving east at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h), though this is still slow. PAGASA said Auring may gradually shift north in the next 12 hours before speeding up.

But for now, with Auring’s generally slow pace, its projected landfall in Caraga’s eastern coast may happen Sunday afternoon or evening, February 21. Landfall was previously expected Sunday morning or afternoon.

After hitting land, Auring is seen to cross the Visayas and Mimaropa for the rest of Sunday until Monday, February 22.

As of Saturday morning, Auring still has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.

PAGASA said Auring is “more likely” to remain a tropical storm until it hits Caraga, though there is also an “increasing likelihood” that it may weaken into a tropical depression before making landfall.

Once it hits land, it is also seen to “weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and persistent vertical wind shear.” The World Meteorological Organization defines wind shear as “layers or columns of air, flowing with different velocities (i.e. speed and/or direction) to adjacent layers or columns.”

Auring remains a threat, however, with rain already hitting parts of Mindanao and the Visayas on Saturday. This is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast as of 11 am:

Saturday, February 20, until Sunday noon, February 21

Heavy to intense rain

• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Dinagat Islands
• Eastern Samar

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• rest of Caraga
• Misamis Oriental
• Camiguin

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Eastern Visayas
• Central Visayas
• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte

Sunday noon, February 21, until Monday noon, February 22

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu
• Bohol
• Surigao del Norte
• Dinagat Islands

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• southern part of Quezon
• rest of Visayas
• rest of Caraga
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Northern Mindanao

The affected areas must be on alert for possible floods and landslides.

Meanwhile, Signal No. 1 remains raised in the following areas:

• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu
• Negros Oriental
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Misamis Occidental
• Lanao del Norte
• Bukidnon
• Lanao del Sur

PAGASA said Auring and the surge of the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan combined will bring strong to gale-force winds to areas under Signal No. 1 in the next 24 hours.

Similar windy conditions will also be experienced in the rest of the Visayas, Bicol, and Calabarzon, as well as Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern part of Palawan, including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands.

The state weather bureau added that strong breeze to near-gale conditions are likely in the rest of Luzon.

Image from PAGASA

Below is PAGASA’s updated forecast for coastal waters.

Rough to high seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1 (waves 2.8 to 6 meters high)

Rough to very rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and remaining seaboards of Visayas (waves 2.8 to 5 meters high)

Rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• northern and western seaboards of Mindanao, and remaining seaboards of Luzon (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Auring is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com