Tropical Storm Auring (Dujuan) slowed down once more on Saturday evening, February 20, returning to an almost stationary state while maintaining its strength.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 11 pm bulletin on Saturday that Auring was 480 kilometers east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, barely moving.

It is forecast to move generally northwest in the next 48 hours, “with periods of erratic movement prior to making landfall,” added PAGASA.

Auring is expected to make landfall in the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar-Leyte area between Sunday evening, February 21, and early Monday morning, February 22. For Eastern Samar, it might hit the southern part, including Homonhon Island.

As of Saturday evening, the tropical storm continues to have maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour (km/h) and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

“There is an increasing likelihood that Auring will weaken into a tropical depression before it makes landfall due to persistent vertical wind shear and dry air intrusion associated with the surge of the northeast monsoon,” PAGASA explained.

“However, the possibility that the storm will maintain its strength until landfall is not yet ruled out,” it added. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

The state weather bureau also said that after Auring makes landfall, it is forecast to “weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear.” It could be downgraded into what is called a remnant low in 48 hours or less.

PAGASA updated its rainfall forecast for Auring, still warning of moderate to heavy rain on Sunday, though it now says flooding may only be “isolated to scattered” compared to possibly “scattered to widespread” earlier. Landslides could also occur.

Sunday, February 21

Moderate to heavy rain

• Eastern Samar
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Caraga
• Northern Mindanao
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• rest of Visayas
• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Quezon

Monday, February 22

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Quezon
• Aurora
• Isabela
• Cagayan
• Western Visayas
• Northern Samar
• Samar
• Eastern Samar

In terms of wind, the following areas remain under Signal No. 1:

• southeastern part of Masbate (Cataingan, Cawayan, Dimasalang, Esperanza, Palanas, Pio V. Corpuz, Placer)
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu
• Negros Oriental
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• northern part of Negros Occidental (Bacolod City, Bago City, Cadiz City, Calatrava, Enrique B. Magalona, Escalante City, Manapla, Murcia, Sagay City, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos City, Silay City, Talisay City, Toboso, Victorias City)
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon

PAGASA said Auring and the surge of the northeast monsoon combined will bring “strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts” to areas under Signal No. 1 in the next 24 hours.

Similar windy conditions will also be experienced in the rest of the Visayas and Bicol, as well as in Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Aurora.

Image from PAGASA

Meanwhile, here is the latest on coastal waters in the next 24 hours:

Rough to high seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1 (waves 2.6 to 6 meters high)

Rough to very rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• eastern seaboard of Luzon (waves 2.6 to 4.5 meters high)

Rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• southern seaboard of Luzon (including eastern seaboard of Palawan), remaining seaboards of Visayas, and northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao that are not under Signal No. 1 (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Auring is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com