Tropical Storm Auring (Dujuan) slightly weakened again on Saturday afternoon, February 20, as a result of the cold and dry air from the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan.

In a briefing past 5 pm on Saturday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Auring’s maximum sustained winds have decreased to 65 kilometers per hour (km/h), with gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

Earlier on Saturday, it had maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.

PAGASA said Auring is now “more likely” to weaken into a tropical depression before it hits land. Then by Monday, February 22, it might be downgraded to a low pressure area due to “significant terrain interaction and persistent vertical wind shear,” or air from the northeast monsoon.

The World Meteorological Organization defines wind shear as “layers or columns of air, flowing with different velocities (i.e. speed and/or direction) to adjacent layers or columns.”

As of Saturday afternoon, Auring was last spotted 440 kilometers east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. It has begun to move northwest, at the same relatively slow pace of 15 km/h.

PAGASA has now named more specific places where Auring could make landfall, after earlier predicting it would first hit the region of Caraga.

The state weather bureau said Auring may make landfall in the Dinagat-Homonhon-Leyte area on Sunday evening, February 21, or early Monday morning, February 22, then cross the Visayas and Mimaropa.

Dinagat Islands is a province in the Caraga region, Homonhon Island is in Eastern Samar province which is in the Eastern Visayas region, and Leyte is a province also in Eastern Visayas.

PAGASA warned that rain will persist in parts of the country even as Auring is likely to weaken further. But intense rain is no longer expected.

Until Saturday evening, February 20

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Caraga
• Eastern Visayas

Sunday, February 21

Moderate to heavy rain

• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Eastern Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Caraga
• Northern Mindanao
• rest of Visayas
• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Quezon

Monday, February 22

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain (due to Auring and tail-end of a frontal system or shear line)

• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Cagayan
• Isabela
• Aurora
• southern part of Quezon

Scattered to widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are still potential hazards to watch out for. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Meanwhile, this is the list of areas under Signal No. 1 as of 5 pm on Saturday:

• southeastern part of Masbate (Cataingan, Cawayan, Dimasalang, Esperanza, Palanas, Pio V. Corpuz, Placer)
• Northern Samar
• Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu
• Negros Oriental
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• northern part of Negros Occidental (Bacolod City, Bago City, Cadiz City, Calatrava, Enrique B. Magalona, Escalante City, Manapla, Murcia, Sagay City, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos City, Silay City, Talisay City, Toboso, Victorias City)
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon

PAGASA said Auring and the surge of the northeast monsoon combined will bring strong to gale-force winds to areas under Signal No. 1 in the next 24 hours.

Similar windy conditions will also be experienced in the rest of the Visayas, Bicol, and Calabarzon, as well as Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern part of Palawan, including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands.

The state weather bureau added that strong breeze to near-gale conditions are likely in the rest of Luzon.

Image from PAGASA

PAGASA maintained its forecast for coastal waters in the next 24 hours.

Rough to high seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1 (waves 2.8 to 6 meters high)

Rough to very rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and remaining seaboards of Visayas (waves 2.8 to 5 meters high)

Rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• northern and western seaboards of Mindanao, and remaining seaboards of Luzon (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Auring is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com