Heavy rain continued to pound parts of the country as Tropical Storm Auring (Dujuan) lingered over the Philippine Sea late Sunday morning, February 21.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 11 am on Sunday that Auring was 335 kilometers east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur – not much change from its location a few hours earlier.

The tropical storm is back to being almost stationary or hardly moving.

For now, it is still projected to make landfall in the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar-Leyte area between Sunday night and early Monday morning, February 22.

Auring maintained its strength late Sunday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour (km/h) and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

But Auring could weaken into a tropical depression before making landfall “due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the northeast monsoon” or hanging amihan.

There is also a possibility that it would just remain a tropical storm until landfall. After landfall, however, Auring is expected to “weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear.” It could be downgraded into a remnant low in 48 hours or less. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Here is the latest list of areas affected by rain from Auring:

Sunday, February 21

Moderate to heavy rain

• Caraga
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon
• Camiguin
• Eastern Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• rest of Visayas
• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Quezon

Monday, February 22

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Visayas
• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Quezon
• Aurora
• Isabela
• Cagayan

The following areas remain under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 am on Sunday. They are also affected by the surge of the northeast monsoon.

Signal No. 2 (gale-force winds)

• central and southern parts of Eastern Samar (Sulat, Taft, San Julian, Borongan City, Maydolong, Balangkayan, Balangiga, Lawaan, Llorente, Hernani, General MacArthur, Quinapondan, Giporlos, Salcedo, Mercedes, Guiuan)
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands

Signal No. 1 (strong breeze to near-gale conditions, with occasionally higher gusts)

• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
• Albay
• Catanduanes
• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagñay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
• Northern Samar
• rest of Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Negros Oriental
• northern and central parts of Negros Occidental (Kabankalan City, Himamaylan City, Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, Hinigaran, La Castellana, Pontevedra, San Enrique, La Carlota City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, Bago City, Murcia, Bacolod City, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto)
• eastern part of Iloilo (San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
• eastern part of Capiz (Roxas City, Panitan, Ma-ayon, Cuartero, Dumarao, Panay, Pontevedra, President Roxas, Pilar)
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon

The rest of the Visayas and the rest of Bicol, as well as Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Aurora, could have windy conditions similar to areas under Signal No. 1.

Image from PAGASA

PAGASA maintained its forecast for coastal waters in the next 24 hours.

Rough to very rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• seaboards of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals (waves 2.6 to 5 meters high)
• eastern seaboard of Luzon not under tropical cyclone wind signals (waves 2.6 to 4.5 meters high)

Rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• southern seaboard of Luzon (including eastern seaboard of Palawan), remaining seaboards of Visayas, and northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao that are not under tropical cyclone wind signals (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Auring is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com