Tropical Storm Auring (Dujuan) slightly decelerated again early Sunday morning, February 21, continuing its generally slow pace toward land.

In a bulletin issued 8 am on Sunday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Auring was located 370 kilometers east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

The tropical storm is moving west northwest at only 10 kilometers per hour (km/h), from its previous speed of 15 km/h before dawn on Sunday.

PAGASA said “short-term erratic movement” remains likely prior to Auring’s landfall. It is still expected to make landfall in the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar-Leyte area between Sunday night and early Monday morning, February 22.

So far, Auring still has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

But PAGASA maintained that there is an “increasing likelihood” of Auring weakening into a tropical depression before hitting land “due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the northeast monsoon” or hanging amihan.

“However, the possibility that the storm will maintain its strength until landfall is not yet ruled out,” PAGASA added.

After Auring makes landfall, it is forecast to “weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear.” It could be downgraded into what is called a remnant low in 48 hours or less. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

This is PAGASA’s updated rainfall forecast for Auring:

Sunday, February 21

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur

Moderate to heavy rain

• rest of Caraga
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon
• Camiguin
• Eastern Visayas

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Northern Mindanao
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• northern part of Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• rest of Visayas
• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Quezon

Monday, February 22

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Bicol
• Mimaropa
• Quezon
• Aurora
• Isabela
• Cagayan
• Western Visayas
• Northern Samar
• Samar
• Eastern Samar

The state weather bureau warned there may be scattered flooding, including flash floods, and rain-induced landslides in hazard-prone areas.

Meanwhile, below are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 8 am on Sunday. They are also affected by the surge of the northeast monsoon.

Signal No. 2 (gale-force winds)

• central and southern parts of Eastern Samar (Sulat, Taft, San Julian, Borongan City, Maydolong, Balangkayan, Balangiga, Lawaan, Llorente, Hernani, General MacArthur, Quinapondan, Giporlos, Salcedo, Mercedes, Guiuan)
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands

Signal No. 1 (strong breeze to near-gale conditions, with occasionally higher gusts)

• Sorsogon
• Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
• Albay
• Catanduanes
• eastern part of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagñay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
• Northern Samar
• rest of Eastern Samar
• Samar
• Biliran
• Leyte
• Southern Leyte
• Cebu
• Bohol
• Siquijor
• Negros Oriental
• northern and central parts of Negros Occidental (Kabankalan City, Himamaylan City, Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, Hinigaran, La Castellana, Pontevedra, San Enrique, La Carlota City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, Bago City, Murcia, Bacolod City, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto)
• eastern part of Iloilo (San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
• eastern part of Capiz (Roxas City, Panitan, Ma-ayon, Cuartero, Dumarao, Panay, Pontevedra, President Roxas, Pilar)
• Surigao del Sur
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• Davao Oriental
• Davao de Oro
• Davao del Norte
• Davao City
• Camiguin
• Misamis Oriental
• Bukidnon

The rest of the Visayas and the rest of Bicol, as well as Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Aurora, could have windy conditions similar to areas under Signal No. 1.

Image from PAGASA

In the next 24 hours, it will still be dangerous to travel in certain seaboards.

Rough to very rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• seaboards of areas under tropical cyclone wind signals (waves 2.6 to 5 meters high)
• eastern seaboard of Luzon not under tropical cyclone wind signals (waves 2.6 to 4.5 meters high)

Rough seas

Travel is risky for all types of vessels

• southern seaboard of Luzon (including eastern seaboard of Palawan), remaining seaboards of Visayas, and northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao that are not under tropical cyclone wind signals (waves 2.5 to 4 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• rest of the seaboards of the Philippines (waves 1.2 to 3 meters high)

Auring is the Philippines’ first tropical cyclone for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1
• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3

PAGASA earlier said La Niña is expected to continue until March 2021, causing above normal rainfall in the country. The onset of La Niña was declared in October 2020. – Rappler.com