Philippine tropical cyclones

Jolina weakens into tropical storm, emerges over Manila Bay

Acor Arceo
Jolina weakens into tropical storm, emerges over Manila Bay

TROPICAL CYCLONES. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Jolina (Conson) and Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu) as of September 8, 2021, 5 pm.

NOAA

Tropical Storm Jolina (Conson) is set to make its ninth landfall in Bataan on Wednesday, September 8, while Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu) continues to intensify

Jolina (Conson) weakened from a severe tropical storm into a tropical storm at 2 pm on Wednesday, September 8, as it moved over Cavite.

Shortly after, it emerged over Manila Bay and began to head toward Bataan.

Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu), meanwhile, further intensified over the Philippine Sea.

Jolina

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm that Jolina was 135 kilometers south of Sangley Point, Cavite, or over Manila Bay.

The tropical storm slowed down, moving northwest at only 10 kilometers per hour from the previous 15 km/h.

Jolina’s maximum sustained winds decreased from 95 km/h to 85 km/h, and its gustiness went down from 160 km/h to 115 km/h.

With Jolina downgraded to a tropical storm, torrential rain is no longer expected. But rain can still be intense in parts of Luzon, which means floods and landslides remain possible. Here is the updated rainfall forecast as of 5 pm on Wednesday:

Heavy to intense rain
  • Bataan
  • Cavite
  • Occidental Mindoro
  • Oriental Mindoro
Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain
  • rest of Central Luzon
  • rest of Calabarzon
Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
  • Metro Manila
  • Ilocos Region
  • Cordillera Administrative Region
  • Cagayan Valley

Parts of Luzon also remain under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 pm on Wednesday.

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)
  • northern part of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City)
  • northern part of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz) including Lubang Islands
  • central part of Quezon (Infanta, Real, Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Tayabas City, Lucena City, Sariaya, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio, Pagbilao)
  • Batangas
  • Cavite
  • Laguna
  • Rizal
  • Metro Manila
  • southern part of Bulacan (Pandi, Bulacan, Marilao, Calumpit, Norzagaray, Plaridel, Santa Maria, Balagtas, Bocaue, Bustos, Malolos City, Angat, Obando, San Jose del Monte City, Pulilan, Meycauayan City, Hagonoy, Paombong, Guiguinto, San Rafael, Baliuag)
  • Pampanga
  • Bataan
  • Zambales
  • Tarlac
Signal No. 1 (strong winds with occasional gusts)
  • Marinduque
  • La Union
  • southern part of Benguet (Sablan, Tublay, Bokod, La Trinidad, Baguio City, Itogon, Tuba, Kapangan, Atok)
  • southern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda, Dupax del Norte, Dupax del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Kayapa)
  • southern part of Aurora (Baler, Maria Aurora, San Luis, Dingalan)
  • Pangasinan
  • Nueva Ecija
  • rest of Bulacan
  • northern and southern parts of Quezon (Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Plaridel, Pitogo, Macalelon, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, General Nakar) including Polillo Islands
  • central part of Oriental Mindoro (Naujan, Victoria, Socorro, Pola, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud)
  • central part of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan)

There are no more storm surge warnings, but PAGASA said there may be coastal flooding “due to hazardous surf conditions” in areas under tropical cyclone wind signals.

Sea travel remains dangerous as well.

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.5 to 5.5 meters high)

Travel risky for all vessels, inexperienced mariners should seek safe harbor

  • seaboards of areas under Signal No. 2
Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

  • seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1
  • remaining seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas

PAGASA sees Jolina moving northwest over the mouth of Manila Bay before making its ninth and final landfall in Bataan by Wednesday evening.

So far, Jolina’s landfalls have been in these areas:

Monday, September 6 (as a typhoon)

  • Hernani, Eastern Samar – 10 pm

Tuesday, September 7 (as a typhoon)

  • Daram, Samar – 2 am
  • Santo Niño, Samar – 3:40 am
  • Almagro, Samar – 6:30 am
  • Tagapul-an, Samar – 7:50 am
  • Dimasalang, Masbate – 10 am

Wednesday, September 8 (as a severe tropical storm)

  • Torrijos, Marinduque – 12:50 am
  • San Juan, Batangas – 9 am

By Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, September 9, Jolina may already emerge over the West Philippine Sea.

It could strengthen again beginning Thursday evening as it heads for the southern China-northern Vietnam area.

Jolina could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday evening or early Friday morning, September 10. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PROJECTED PATH. Forecast track of Tropical Storm Jolina (Conson) as of September 8, 2021, 5 pm.
PAGASA
Kiko

Meanwhile, Kiko was located 1,020 kilometers east of Central Luzon late Wednesday afternoon.

The typhoon continues to move west southwest at 20 km/h.

Kiko’s maximum sustained winds increased from 155 km/h to 175 km/h and its gustiness increased from 190 km/h to 215 km/h.

PAGASA expects the typhoon to keep gaining strength until Saturday, September 11, when it may reach its peak intensity of 185 to 205 km/h.

PAGASA said heavy rain from Kiko could begin affecting the eastern part of Northern Luzon on Friday.

Tropical cyclone wind signals may also be raised for several provinces in Northern Luzon beginning Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. Signal No. 4 would be the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Kiko.

PAGASA added that Kiko may trigger rough conditions in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon beginning Thursday as it approaches Northern Luzon.

“Due to the strength of this tropical cyclone, sea condition over the waters in the northern provinces of the country will likely be risky for all types of seacraft in the coming days,” the state weather bureau said.

PAGASA expects Kiko to keep moving west southwest in the next 12 hours, or until the early hours of Thursday, before turning west northwest until Friday.

It is projected to go near the northeastern part of mainland Cagayan then head for extreme Northern Luzon.

On Saturday, Kiko could pass near the southern coast of Taiwan, which is still within PAR. It may leave PAR that same day.

Weakening is possible on Sunday, September 12, as the typhoon interacts with Taiwan’s rugged terrain.

By Sunday evening or Monday morning, September 13, Kiko might make landfall in the southeastern part of China.

PROJECTED PATH. Forecast track of Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu) as of September 8, 2021, 5 pm.
PAGASA

Jolina and Kiko are the Philippines’ 10th and 11th tropical cyclones for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

Jolina weakens into tropical storm, emerges over Manila Bay

For the next six months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:

2021
  • September – 2 or 3
  • October – 2 or 3
  • November – 2 or 3
  • December – 1 or 2
2022
  • January – 0 or 1
  • February – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.