With Tropical Storm Jolina (Conson) moving away, focus is shifting to the more powerful Typhoon Kiko (Chanthu), which threatens Northern Luzon.

Kiko was last spotted 785 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 5 am on Thursday, September 9.

The typhoon is still moving west at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It has resumed intensifying over the Philippine Sea, and now has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h and gustiness of up to 230 km/h.

Kiko previously had maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h and gustiness of up to 215 km/h late Wednesday evening, September 8.

PAGASA already declared Signal No. 1 in the following areas as of 5 am on Thursday:

• eastern part of Cagayan (Buguey, Lal-lo, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga, Santa Ana, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca)
• northeastern part of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, San Pablo, Cabagan, Palanan)

Signal No. 1 means strong winds with occasional gusts will be experienced within 36 hours.

“However, it must be noted that as the typhoon progresses towards extreme Northern Luzon, higher wind signals will be hoisted in some localities within Northern Luzon,” PAGASA said.

Signal No. 4 is the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal for Kiko.

PAGASA also warned parts of Northern Luzon to brace for rain from the typhoon, which may begin on Friday evening, September 10.

Heavy to intense rain, with at times torrential rain

• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• northern part of Isabela

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Batanes
• rest of Isabela

The state weather bureau emphasized that scattered to widespread floods and landslides may occur.

PAGASA added that Kiko may trigger high waves and storm surges, which could cause coastal inundation in several coastal municipalities in Northern Luzon.

On Thursday, the typhoon is already affecting certain seaboards.

Moderate to very rough seas (waves 1.5 to 2.8 meters high), progressing to rough to very rough seas (waves 2.5 to 5 meters high)

Travel risky for most vessels, inexperienced mariners should seek safe harbor

• eastern seaboard of Northern Luzon

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)

Small vessels must take precautionary measures, inexperienced mariners should avoid navigation

• northern seaboard of Northern Luzon
• eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon

PAGASA sees Kiko moving west northwest or northwest from Thursday to Saturday, September 11, “with periods of short-term wobbling in its movement.”

The typhoon is expected to pass very close to the northeastern part of Cagayan and cross the vicinity of Babuyan Islands between Friday afternoon and early Saturday morning.

Then it will pass over the south and west of Batanes between early Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon.

However, there is a chance of Kiko making landfall in mainland Cagayan. PAGASA is not ruling out this scenario since the typhoon’s track has recently been shifting southward.

PAGASA also said the typhoon could reach a peak intensity between 185 km/h and 205 km/h on Friday evening while passing close to mainland Northern Luzon and over Babuyan Islands.

After crossing Babuyan Islands and the Luzon Strait, Kiko is projected to turn north northwest and north on Sunday, September 12, until Monday morning, September 13, as it passes near Taiwan’s southwest and west coasts and moves over the Taiwan Strait.

The typhoon may start to weaken on Sunday as it interacts with Taiwan’s rugged terrain.

For the rest of Monday until Tuesday morning, September 14, Kiko will turn north northeast and make landfall in the southeastern part of China. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA

Meanwhile, Jolina was located 145 kilometers west northwest of Iba, Zambales, or 175 kilometers west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan, before dawn on Thursday.

The tropical storm slightly slowed down, moving northwest at 25 km/h from the previous 30 km/h.

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.

Only these areas remain under Signal No. 1 due to Jolina as of 5 am on Thursday:

• western part of Pangasinan (Anda, Bolinao, Infanta, Aguilar, Sual, Labrador, Dasol, Bugallon, Burgos, Mabini, Agno, Alaminos City, Bani, Lingayen, Mangatarem)
• northern part of Zambales (San Antonio, Botolan, San Narciso, San Felipe, Cabangan, Palauig, Iba, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz)

Strong winds are still prevailing in those areas under Signal No. 1.

The provinces below, meanwhile, still have light to moderate rain from Jolina. The rain may be heavy at times.

• Zambales
• Bataan
• Pangasinan

On Thursday, Jolina will also trigger moderate to rough seas, with waves 1.5 to 4 meters high, in the western seaboard of Luzon. Travel is risky for small vessels.

Jolina is expected to continue moving northwest over the West Philippine Sea and leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Outside PAR, it will head west toward Vietnam or the southern part of China.

Jolina is also likely to re-intensify into a severe tropical storm on Thursday, and into a typhoon on Friday.

Jolina had made landfall in the Philippines nine times.

Monday, September 6 (as a typhoon)

• Hernani, Eastern Samar – 10 pm

Tuesday, September 7 (as a typhoon)

• Daram, Samar – 2 am
• Santo Niño, Samar – 3:40 am
• Almagro, Samar – 6:30 am
• Tagapul-an, Samar – 7:50 am
• Dimasalang, Masbate – 10 am

Wednesday, September 8 (as a severe tropical storm)

• Torrijos, Marinduque – 12:50 am
• San Juan, Batangas – 9 am

Wednesday, September 8 (as a tropical storm)

• Mariveles, Bataan – 5:30 pm

PAGASA

Jolina and Kiko are the Philippines’ 10th and 11th tropical cyclones for 2021.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the next six months, these are PAGASA’s estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:

2021

• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com