The possibility of Tropical Storm Maring (Kompasu) making landfall in mainland northern Cagayan is not yet ruled out, as it heads for the Luzon Strait.
As of late Sunday evening, October 10, Maring was already 495 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
The tropical storm slightly accelerated, moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour from the previous 20 km/h.
It still has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.
But Maring could intensify into a severe tropical storm within 12 hours, or by Monday morning, October 11. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)
PAGASA maintained its rainfall forecast for Maring, reiterating that scattered floods and landslides may hit affected areas on Monday.
Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- Cordillera Administrative Region
- Ilocos Region
Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
- rest of Cagayan Valley
- Central Luzon
Maring is now enhancing the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat as well. Rain from the enhanced southwest monsoon could cause flash floods and landslides on Monday.
Monsoon rain (moderate to heavy, at times intense)
- Western Visayas
- Zamboanga Peninsula
- Occidental Mindoro
There are no more areas in the Visayas under tropical cyclone wind signals, but several provinces in Luzon were added to the list. All areas remaining under wind signals, as of 11 pm on Sunday, are in Luzon.
Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
- northern part of Isabela (Palanan, Divilacan, Maconacon, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Quirino, Gamu, Roxas, Mallig, Quezon)
- Mountain Province
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
Signal No. 1 (strong winds)
- rest of Isabela
- Nueva Vizcaya
- La Union
- Nueva Ecija
- northern part of Bataan (Samal, Morong, Dinalupihan, Abucay, Orani, Hermosa)
- northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands
- Calaguas Islands
Occasional gusts also remain possible in island, coastal, and mountainous areas of the regions below. This is due to Maring’s “expansive wind field” and “the enhancement of the southwesterlies and northeasterlies,” said PAGASA.
- rest of Luzon
- Dinagat Islands
- Surigao del Norte
- Agusan del Norte
- Misamis Oriental
- Misamis Occidental
- Zamboanga del Norte
A gale warning was issued at 11 pm on Sunday for the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and the Visayas. Maring is causing rough to very rough waters, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high.
PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, while larger vessels must watch out for big waves.
In its separate Maring bulletin, PAGASA also warned that rough to high seas are expected in the seaboards of areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2 on Monday.
“These conditions are risky for all types of sea vessels. Mariners are advised to remain in port or take shelter in port until winds and waves subside,” the weather bureau said.
Also on Monday, moderate to rough seas are seen in the remaining seaboards of Luzon and the Visayas, and the northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao. Waves are 1.2 to 2.8 meters high. Travel is risky for small vessels.
PAGASA expects Maring to keep moving west northwest until Monday morning, before it turns more toward the west.
It could then move over the Luzon Strait between Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning, October 12, and pass very close to or over the Babuyan Islands.
But as mentioned, landfall in mainland northern Cagayan remains a possibility.
Maring is likely to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday morning or afternoon. Ahead of its exit, though, it is now projected to intensify into a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
Outside PAR, it could make landfall in the Chinese island province of Hainan on Wednesday morning or afternoon, October 13, and then start weakening.
Maring is the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone for 2021 and the second for October.
On Sunday morning, Maring had completed its merger with the remnant low that was formerly Tropical Depression Nando. The two tropical cyclones had interacted over the Philippine Sea, resulting in the merger.
Nando, the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2021, had no impact on weather in the country.
An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)
These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the next six months:
- October – 2 or 3
- November – 2 or 3
- December – 1 or 2
- January – 0 or 1
- February – 0 or 1
- March – 0 or 1
The weather bureau is also monitoring the possible emergence of La Niña in the fourth quarter of 2021. – Rappler.com