Tropical Storm Maring (Kompasu) continued to move closer to extreme Northern Luzon before dawn on Monday, October 11.

In its 5 am bulletin on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Maring was located 350 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan.

The tropical storm is still moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.

But “Maring is forecast to consolidate in the near term and intensify into a severe tropical storm within the next 12 hours,” said PAGASA. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Rain from the tropical storm will persist in Northern Luzon and Central Luzon on Monday. Scattered flash floods and landslides are “highly likely,” the weather bureau warned.

Moderate to heavy rain, with at times intense rain

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Ilocos Region

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• rest of Cagayan Valley
• Central Luzon

Maring also continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat, which is affecting the western parts of Southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao on Monday. Flash floods and landslides are also possible.

Monsoon rain

• Western Visayas
• Zamboanga Peninsula
• Palawan
• Occidental Mindoro

Over two dozen areas in Luzon remain under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 am on Monday.

Signal No. 2 (damaging gale-force to storm-force winds)

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• northern part of Isabela (Palanan, Divilacan, Maconacon, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, San Pablo, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Quirino, Gamu, Roxas, Mallig, Quezon)
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Abra
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur

Signal No. 1 (strong winds)

• rest of Isabela
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Aurora
• Nueva Ecija
• Tarlac
• Zambales
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• northern part of Bataan (Samal, Morong, Dinalupihan, Abucay, Orani, Hermosa)
• northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands
• Calaguas Islands

Occasional gusts also remain possible in island, coastal, and mountainous areas of most places in the country due to Maring’s “expansive wind field” and the enhanced southwest monsoon.

• rest of Luzon
• Visayas
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Agusan del Norte
• Misamis Oriental
• Misamis Occidental
• Camiguin
• Zamboanga del Norte

Maring is affecting the Philippines’ coastal waters as well.

Rough to high seas

Conditions risky for all vessels

• seaboards of areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2 (waves 2.5 to 7.5 meters high)

Rough to very rough seas

Small vessels advised not to sail, larger vessels alerted against big waves

• eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas (waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high)

Moderate to rough seas

Conditions risky for small vessels

• remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)
• northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao (waves 1.2 to 2.8 meters high)

PAGASA expects Maring to keep moving west northwest until Monday morning or afternoon, before turning west.

It could then move over the Luzon Strait between Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning, October 12, and pass very close to or over the Babuyan Islands.

Landfall in mainland northern Cagayan or a close approach to Batanes may also occur.

PAGASA added that Maring might even start crossing extreme Northern Luzon slightly earlier, or by Monday morning, “considering the short-period acceleration observed over the past couple of hours.”

Maring is likely to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday morning or afternoon. Also on Tuesday, it could intensify into a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.

Outside PAR, it could make landfall in the Chinese island province of Hainan on Wednesday morning or afternoon, October 13, and then start weakening.

PAGASA

Maring is the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone for 2021 and the second for October.

On Sunday morning, October 10, Maring had completed its merger with the remnant low that was formerly Tropical Depression Nando. The two tropical cyclones had interacted over the Philippine Sea, resulting in the merger.

Nando, the Philippines’ 14th tropical cyclone for 2021, had no impact on weather in the country.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA’s latest estimates for the next six months:

2021

• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

2022

• January – 0 or 1
• February – 0 or 1
• March – 0 or 1

The weather bureau is also monitoring the possible emergence of La Niña in the fourth quarter of 2021. – Rappler.com