Nika left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a tropical depression at 11 am on Monday, October 12, then intensified into a tropical storm at 2 pm, getting the international name Nangka.

While Nika is already outside PAR, however, it still has an effect on the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat.

A low pressure area (LPA) also remains inside PAR.

Nika, southwest monsoon

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a bulletin at 5 pm that Nika was located 520 kilometers west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur, still over the West Philippine Sea.

The tropical storm is moving west northwest at 20 kilometers per hour (km/h), heading for the Chinese province of Hainan where it is expected to make landfall on Tuesday afternoon or evening, October 13. It did not make landfall in the Philippines, but still brought rain to parts of Luzon.

Nika had maximum winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h as of Monday afternoon, but PAGASA said it is likely to intensify into a severe tropical storm on Tuesday morning.

Image from PAGASA

For the rest of Monday until Tuesday morning, the southwest monsoon enhanced by Nika will continue to bring light to heavy rain to these areas:

• Metro Manila
• Ilocos Region
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Cagayan Valley
• Central Luzon
• Calabarzon
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Palawan including Kalayaan, Calamian, and Cuyo Islands

Floods and landslides remain threats. Some flood-prone areas in Metro Manila were already affected on Monday. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA added that the enhanced southwest monsoon and the northeasterly surface windflow will bring strong winds to the northern and western parts of Luzon, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.

It also issued a gale warning, as waters are rough to very rough and risky for travel in the seaboards of the following provinces:

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Zambales
• Bataan

In other seaboards of Luzon, small vessels must watch out for moderate to rough seas.

Low pressure area

The LPA inside PAR, meanwhile, was located 540 kilometers east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte, as of Monday afternoon.

PAGASA said the LPA is triggering scattered rain showers in the following provinces:

• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte
• Surigao del Sur
• Davao Oriental

It is moving northwest toward the Bicol-Eastern Visayas area, possibly maintaining this direction until Wednesday, October 14.

PAGASA said the LPA is likely to develop into a tropical depression within 48 hours, or by Wednesday.

If it does become a tropical depression, it would be given the local name Ofel, as the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2020.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

• October 2020 – 2 or 3
• November 2020 – 1 or 2
• December 2020 – 1 or 2
• January 2021 – 1 or 2
• February 2021 – 0 or 1
• March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña. – Rappler.com