Philippine tropical cyclones

Tropical Storm Pepito threatens Aurora

Acor Arceo

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Tropical Storm Pepito threatens Aurora

Image from NOAA

Tropical Storm Pepito (Saudel) gains more strength late Tuesday afternoon, October 20, ahead of its projected landfall in Aurora in the evening

Tropical Storm Pepito (Saudel) is now expected to make landfall in the province of Aurora between 6 pm and 10 pm on Tuesday, October 20.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 5 pm bulletin on Tuesday that Pepito is already 110 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora.

The tropical storm slightly accelerated, moving west northwest at 30 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 25 km/h.

It also slightly intensified ahead of its projected landfall, with maximum winds now at 75 km/h from the previous 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h from the previous 80 km/h.

Signal Nos. 1 and 2 remain raised due to Pepito. These are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 pm on Tuesday:

Signal No. 2 (winds of 60 to 120 km/h)
  • La Union
  • Pangasinan
  • Ifugao
  • Benguet
  • Nueva Vizcaya
  • Quirino
  • Nueva Ecija
  • Tarlac
  • Aurora
  • southern part of Isabela (Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Santiago City, Cordon)
  • southern part of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Alilem, Tagudin)
  • northern part of Zambales (Iba, Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz, Botolan, Cabangan)
  • northern part of Quezon (General Nakar) including Polillo Island
Signal No. 1 (winds of 30 to 60 km/h)
  • Abra
  • Kalinga
  • Mountain Province
  • Bulacan
  • Pampanga
  • Bataan
  • Metro Manila
  • Rizal
  • rest of northern part of Quezon (Infanta, Real)
  • rest of Ilocos Sur
  • rest of Isabela
  • rest of Zambales

PAGASA warned that “high to gale-force winds” will be experienced in areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2.

In addition, “high to gale-force winds with occasional gusts” due to the northeasterly surface windflow may hit these areas:

  • Batanes
  • Babuyan Islands
  • coastal and/or mountainous areas of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte

Pepito will also continue to bring rain to the entire Luzon, as well as parts of the Visayas and of Mindanao. Below is PAGASA’s latest rainfall forecast, covering Tuesday evening until Wednesday morning, October 21.

Moderate to heavy rain
  • Central Luzon
  • Mimaropa
  • Camarines Norte
  • Quezon
  • Nueva Vizcaya
  • Quirino
  • Isabela
  • mainland Cagayan
  • La Union
  • Pangasinan
  • Benguet
Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain
  • rest of Luzon
  • Western Visayas
  • Zamboanga Peninsula
  • Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao

Floods already hit some areas, such as Quezon province, on Tuesday. Landslides are also possible. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA also issued a gale warning, covering these seaboards with rough to very rough waters and waves 2.8 to 5 meters high:

  • seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte
  • western seaboards of Batangas and Occidental Mindoro, including Lubang Island

In seaboards of areas under Signal Nos. 1 and 2, waters are rough to very rough as well, and waves could reach 2.5 to 5 meters high. Travel is risky, especially for those using small vessels.

There are also moderate to rough seas, with waves 1.5 to 3 meters high, in these areas:

  • Palawan
  • eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region

Precautionary measures are needed for small vessels, said PAGASA. It added that “inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.”

After making landfall in Aurora, Pepito will cross the landmass of Luzon, then emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday morning. Once it is over water again, it may intensify into a severe tropical storm by Thursday, October 22.

Pepito could exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning or afternoon.

Forecast track of Tropical Storm Pepito (Saudel) as of October 20, 2020, 5 pm.
Image from PAGASA

Meanwhile, PAGASA continues to monitor a tropical depression outside PAR, which is now 1,750 kilometers east northeast of extreme Northern Luzon.

This tropical depression still has maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

It is moving northeast at 15 km/h, and is “less likely” to enter PAR, according to the state weather bureau.

Pepito is the Philippines’ 16th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 3rd for October.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:

  • October 2020 – 2 or 3
  • November 2020 – 1 or 2
  • December 2020 – 1 or 2
  • January 2021 – 1 or 2
  • February 2021 – 0 or 1
  • March 2021 – 0 or 1

Last October 2, the state weather bureau warned Filipinos to expect more rain in the coming months due to the onset of La Niña– Rappler.com

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.