The tropical storm outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), with the international name Surigae, “remains less likely to directly affect the country” in the next 3 days, said the state weather bureau on Wednesday morning, April 14.

But the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) also said in its advisory that the eastern parts of Southern Luzon and the Visayas should monitor updates on Tropical Storm Surigae in case there are any changes or developments.

As of late Wednesday morning, Surigae was located 1,205 kilometers east of Mindanao, almost stationary or hardly moving in that spot.

PAGASA said the tropical storm will continue its slow pace until Thursday morning, April 15, then gradually speed up.

At the rate it is moving, it is expected to enter PAR on Friday, April 16. Once it enters, it will be given the local name Bising, as the Philippines’ second tropical cyclone for 2021. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

On Wednesday morning, the tropical storm slightly intensified, with maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour (km/h) and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.

Surigae is likely to continue gaining strength over water, according to PAGASA. It may become a severe tropical storm in the next 24 hours, and possibly a typhoon by Friday, the day of its expected entry into PAR.

For now, Surigae could recurve after entering PAR and exit without making landfall. It could just stay over water. That is one possible scenario.

But PAGASA also stressed that the eastern parts of Southern Luzon and the Visayas – particularly Bicol and Eastern Visayas – must be on alert, “considering the uncertainty” in Surigae’s forecast track.

The uncertainty stems from the fact that the tropical storm is still outside PAR and far from land, and its direction could still shift in the coming days.

If Surigae or the potential Bising shifts westward, said PAGASA, this “may result in potentially significant impacts” from Saturday, April 17, to Monday, April 19.

There could be scattered rain from Surigae’s outer rainbands, gusts of wind, and bigger waves in the Bicol-Eastern Visayas area if the tropical cyclone approaches. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

“Kailangan nila maghanda just in case para sila po ay safe sa effects of this tropical cyclone (They need to prepare just in case so they would be safe from the effects of this tropical cyclone),” said PAGASA Weather Specialist Ariel Rojas in a press briefing on Wednesday.

Surigae, said PAGASA, was a name contributed by North Korea to the international list. It refers to “a kind of eagle.”

Image from PAGASA

The Philippines is currently experiencing its hot dry season, popularly called “summer,” but this does not mean that tropical cyclones are impossible.

So far, the country has had only one tropical cyclone in 2021. Auring (Dujuan), which struck in February, reached severe tropical storm status but eventually hit land as a tropical depression.

For the next 6 months, PAGASA estimates the following number of tropical cyclones inside PAR:

• April – 0 or 1
• May – 0 or 1
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 1 to 3
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 or 3

– Rappler.com