Typhoon Fabian (In-fa) slightly intensified before dawn on Wednesday, July 21, while the enhanced southwest monsoon or hanging habagat continued to affect the Philippines.

Fabian now has maximum sustained winds of 130 kilometers per hour from the previous 120 km/h and gustiness of up to 160 km/h from the previous 150 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its 5 am bulletin on Wednesday.

The typhoon was last spotted 740 kilometers east northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, moving west southwest at only 10 km/h, slightly slower than its previous speed of 15 km/h. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Fabian will not make landfall in the Philippines, but PAGASA is not ruling out the possibility of raising Signal No. 1 in Batanes and Babuyan Islands. The state weather bureau said strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 650 kilometers from the center of the typhoon.

Fabian and Cempaka – which had weakened from a typhoon into a severe tropical storm on Tuesday evening, July 20 – are still enhancing the southwest monsoon as well.

Cempaka is outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), at 1,030 kilometers west of extreme Northern Luzon or in the vicinity of Yangjiang, Guangdong, China.

PAGASA warned of monsoon rain in the areas below on Wednesday.

• Metro Manila
• Ilocos Region
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• Zambales
• Bataan
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Cavite
• Batangas
• Occidental Mindoro
• northern part of Palawan (including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands)

The rest of Luzon as well as Western Visayas are also expected to have scattered rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday, while the rest of the country may see rain showers or thunderstorms.

Due to the enhanced southwest monsoon and Fabian, coastal waters in some areas will be risky for small vessels.

Rough to very rough seas (waves 2.5 to 4.5 meters high)

• seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands
• western seaboard of Palawan (including Kalayaan and Calamian Islands) and Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Islands)

Moderate to rough seas (waves 1.5 to 3 meters high)

• eastern seaboard of Luzon
• rest of northern and western seaboards of Luzon

PAGASA expects Fabian to move west southwest until Thursday morning, July 22; west for the rest of Thursday until Friday morning, July 23; then northwest for the rest of Friday until the end of the forecast period.

On Thursday evening, Fabian is seen to reach its peak intensity of 155 km/h.

The typhoon could pass close to or make landfall in Japan’s Yaeyama, Miyako, and Senkaku Islands on Friday before leaving PAR on Saturday morning, July 24.

Also on Saturday morning or afternoon, Fabian may move off the northern coast of Taiwan or make landfall there. This could result in gradual weakening, PAGASA said, due to Taiwan’s rugged terrain.

Fabian might also make another landfall in the southeastern part of China by Sunday, July 25, which would lead to rapid weakening of the typhoon.

PAGASA

Fabian is the Philippines’ sixth tropical cyclone for 2021 and the second for July.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

For the rest of 2021, these are PAGASA’s estimates per month:

• July – 1 to 3
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 2 or 3
• December – 1 or 2

The rainy season has been underway since early June. – Rappler.com