Typhoon Fabian slightly slows down; monsoon rain persists

Typhoon Fabian (In-fa) slowed down a bit before dawn on Thursday, July 22, moving at only 10 kilometers per hour from the previous 15 km/h.

Fabian was last spotted 530 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, heading west southwest, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

The typhoon continues to have maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h and gustiness of up to 185 km/h.

It will not make landfall in the country, but strong winds extending up to 640 kilometers from its center are expected to affect extreme Northern Luzon.

That is why Batanes and Babuyan Islands remain under Signal No. 1. PAGASA said there may be "very light to light damage to structures and vegetation due to moderate to strong winds." (READ: Why is it now called tropical cyclone 'wind' – and not 'warning' – signals?)

Fabian is still unlikely to directly bring heavy rain to the Philippines, but it continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat, which is again affecting the country on Thursday.

Expect monsoon rain to persist in the following areas:

  • Ilocos Region
  • Abra
  • Benguet
  • Zambales
  • Bataan
  • Tarlac
  • Pampanga
  • Bulacan
  • Metro Manila
  • Cavite
  • Batangas
  • Occidental Mindoro
  • Oriental Mindoro
  • Romblon
  • northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands

Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon may have scattered rain and thunderstorms because of the southwest monsoon as well.

More floods and landslides could occur during periods of moderate to heavy rain. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA also warned of rough to very rough seas on Thursday in the northern, western, and eastern seaboards of Luzon, including the areas under Signal No. 1, due to the enhanced southwest monsoon and the typhoon. Travel is risky for small vessels.

Fabian is projected to move west or west southwest on Thursday, then north northwest for the rest of the forecast period.

The typhoon could pass close to or make landfall in Japan's Miyako, Yaeyama, and Senkaku Islands on Friday, July 23. On the same day, it might reach its peak intensity of 155 to 165 km/h.

Fabian may then leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday evening or Saturday morning, July 24. Also on Saturday, the typhoon could start weakening.

Following its exit, Fabian is seen to cross the East China Sea and then make another landfall in the eastern part of China on Sunday morning, July 25. Further weakening is expected afterwards.

PROJECTED PATH. Forecast track of Typhoon Fabian (In-fa) as of July 22, 2021, 5 am.

PAGASA

Fabian is the Philippines' sixth tropical cyclone for 2021 and the second for July.

An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter PAR each year. (READ: LIST: PAGASA's names for tropical cyclones in 2021)

These are PAGASA's latest available estimates per month:

2021
  • July - 1 to 3
  • August - 2 or 3
  • September - 2 or 3
  • October - 2 or 3
  • November - 2 or 3
  • December - 1 or 2
2022
  • January - 0 or 1

The rainy season has been underway since early June. – Rappler.com

Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters, handles the business desk, and ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections.

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