MANILA, Philippines – Goring (Saola) was downgraded from a super typhoon to a typhoon as it continued its counterclockwise loop over the Philippine Sea before dawn on Monday, August 28. But it remains a strong tropical cyclone that should not be taken lightly.

Goring’s maximum sustained winds decreased from 185 kilometers per hour to 175 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 5 am on Monday.

Its gustiness eased from 230 km/h to 215 km/h.

In the next 12 hours, Goring could slightly weaken further “due to upwelling of cooler ocean waters and onset of dry air intrusion,” PAGASA said. But it may re-intensify and return to super typhoon status by mid-Tuesday, August 29.

Goring was last spotted 210 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, as of 4 am on Monday. It slightly accelerated, moving east southeast at 15 km/h from the previous 10 km/h.

The typhoon is seen to turn northeast and north on Monday, then northwest on Tuesday toward the Bashi Channel and the vicinity of Batanes. The Bashi Channel is between Batanes and Taiwan, which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Goring may pass close to Batanes between Wednesday morning and evening, August 30, “at or near its peak intensity,” the weather bureau warned. Landfall in the province is still not ruled out.

Between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, August 31, Goring could also pass close to Taiwan. “Interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan during its close approach” may lead to a weakening trend starting late Wednesday.

As Goring continues its looping path, rain from the typhoon is also easing since it is relatively farther from land than it was during the past couple of days.

But with Goring projected to go near or possibly make landfall in Batanes, rain may worsen on Wednesday. Floods and landslides also remain possible.

Monday, August 28

• 50-100 millimeters (mm): northeastern part of mainland Cagayan

Tuesday, August 29

• 50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern part of mainland Cagayan, northern part of Apayao, northern part of Ilocos Norte

Wednesday, August 30

• Greater than 200 mm: Batanes
• 100-200 mm: Babuyan Islands
• 50-100 mm: northern part of mainland Cagayan, northern part of Apayao, northern part of Ilocos Norte

Meanwhile, Signal No. 2 has also been lifted, for now. Only Signal No. 1 remains in effect as of 5 am on Monday, in the following areas which are facing strong winds from the typhoon:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Santa Ana, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Allacapan, Lal-lo, Lasam, Peñablanca, Iguig, Amulung, Gattaran, Alcala)
• eastern part of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Ilagan City, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
• northern and central parts of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dilasag, Baler, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, San Luis)
• Polillo Islands
• northern and eastern parts of Camarines Norte (Capalonga, Jose Panganiban, Paracale, Vinzons, Talisay, Daet, Mercedes) including Calaguas Islands
• northeastern part of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan)
• northern part of Catanduanes (Panganiban, Caramoran, Viga, Bagamanoc, Pandan)

PAGASA explained that it raised Signal No. 1 for some areas in the Bicol region “due to the increased wind radii in the southern half of the typhoon circulation.”

The weather bureau added that higher wind signals can still be raised for extreme Northern Luzon and the northern or northeastern part of mainland Cagayan on Monday or Tuesday.

Signal No. 3 or 4 for the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area is not ruled out.

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Goring also continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat. Rain from the enhanced southwest monsoon is heaviest in the following provinces:

Sunday evening, August 27, to Monday evening, August 28

• 100-200 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Cavite, Batangas, northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo islands, Antique

Monday evening, August 28, to Tuesday evening, August 29

• 100-200 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Cavite, Batangas, northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo islands, Antique, southwestern part of Iloilo, northwestern part of Aklan

Tuesday evening, August 29, to Wednesday evening, August 30

• 100-200 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Cavite, Batangas, Romblon, northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo islands, Antique, northwestern part of Aklan

The enhanced southwest monsoon is triggering gusty conditions in these areas as well:

Monday, August 28

• Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, most of Zamboanga Peninsula

Tuesday, August 29

• Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, most of Zamboanga Peninsula

Wednesday, August 30

• Aurora, Bataan, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, most of Visayas

For coastal waters, PAGASA issued a new gale warning at 5 am on Monday. This is due to both the typhoon and the enhanced southwest monsoon:

• eastern seaboard of Northern Luzon (Isabela, eastern coast of Cagayan) – rough to high seas, with waves 3.1 to 6.5 meters high
• northern seaboard of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, northern coast of Cagayan, northern coast of Ilocos Norte, Aurora) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 5 meters high
• seaboards of Southern Luzon (Palawan, Romblon, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, southern coast of Batangas, northern and southern coasts of Quezon including Polillo Islands, northern and eastern coasts of Catanduanes, Masbate including Burias Islands) and western seaboard of Visayas (Antique, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

The weather bureau advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

Goring is likely to exit PAR on Thursday morning or afternoon, and cross the Taiwan Strait. Then it could make landfall in the southeastern part of China on Friday evening, September 1, or early Saturday morning, September 2.

It is the Philippines’ seventh tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for August. It was also the third super typhoon for the year, after Betty (Mawar) in May and Egay (Doksuri) in July.

PAGASA previously said it expects two or three tropical cyclones to develop within or enter PAR in August.

The second tropical cyclone for August could be the tropical depression that developed outside PAR on Sunday afternoon, August 27.

The tropical depression was located 2,290 kilometers east of Northern Luzon at 3 am on Monday, slowly moving west.

It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

PAGASA earlier said the tropical depression could enter PAR as a typhoon on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning. It would be given the local name Hanna.

The weather bureau’s next advisory on the potential Hanna will be issued at 11 am on Monday. – Rappler.com