MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Goring (Saola) weakened further over the Philippine Sea on Monday morning, August 28, while the tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) strengthened into a tropical storm and was given the international name Haikui.

In a briefing past 11 am on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Goring’s maximum sustained winds decreased from 175 kilometers per hour to 155 km/h. Its gustiness eased from 215 km/h to 190 km/h.

For the rest of Monday, the typhoon may either maintain its strength or slightly weaken again “due to upwelling of cooler ocean waters and onset of dry air intrusion,” added PAGASA.

It may re-intensify afterwards, but is now seen to remain a typhoon for the rest of the forecast period. At its peak, Goring was a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h.

As of Monday morning, Goring was located 245 kilometers east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora. From its previous east southeast direction, it has shifted north northeast, still at the same speed of 15 km/h.

The typhoon is projected to head northeast and north from Monday to Tuesday, August 29, then northwest on Tuesday toward the Bashi Channel and the vicinity of Batanes. The Bashi Channel is between Batanes and Taiwan, which is within PAR.

Goring may pass close to Batanes between Wednesday morning and evening, August 30, “at or near its peak intensity,” the weather bureau warned. Landfall in the province is still not ruled out.

Between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, August 31, Goring could also pass close to Taiwan. “Interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan during its close approach” may lead to a weakening trend starting late Wednesday.

PAGASA maintained its rainfall forecast for Goring, even as the typhoon continues to weaken. Floods and landslides are still expected in affected provinces.

Monday, August 28

• 50-100 millimeters (mm): northeastern part of mainland Cagayan

Tuesday, August 29

• 50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern part of mainland Cagayan, northern part of Apayao, northern part of Ilocos Norte

Wednesday, August 30

• Greater than 200 mm: Batanes
• 100-200 mm: Babuyan Islands
• 50-100 mm: northern part of mainland Cagayan, northern part of Apayao, northern part of Ilocos Norte

The same areas remain under Signal No. 1 as of 11 am on Monday, which means Goring will continue to bring strong winds:

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Santa Ana, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Allacapan, Lal-lo, Lasam, Peñablanca, Iguig, Amulung, Gattaran, Alcala)
• eastern part of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Ilagan City, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
• northern and central parts of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dilasag, Baler, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, San Luis)
• Polillo Islands
• northern and eastern parts of Camarines Norte (Capalonga, Jose Panganiban, Paracale, Vinzons, Talisay, Daet, Mercedes) including Calaguas Islands
• northeastern part of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan)
• northern part of Catanduanes (Panganiban, Caramoran, Viga, Bagamanoc, Pandan)

PAGASA said higher wind signals can still be raised for extreme Northern Luzon and the northern or northeastern part of mainland Cagayan on Monday or Tuesday.

Signal No. 3 or 4 for the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area is not ruled out.

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Goring also continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat. Rain from the enhanced southwest monsoon remains heaviest in Occidental Mindoro.

On Wednesday, Metro Manila is among the areas which may have moderate to heavy rain due to the enhanced southwest monsoon.

Monday, August 28

• 100-200 mm: Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo islands, Antique

Tuesday, August 29

• 100-200 mm: Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo islands, Antique, southwestern part of Iloilo, northwestern part of Aklan

Wednesday, August 30

• 100-200 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas

The enhanced southwest monsoon is triggering gusty conditions in these areas as well:

Monday, August 28

• Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, most of Zamboanga Peninsula

Tuesday, August 29

• Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, most of Zamboanga Peninsula

Wednesday, August 30

• Aurora, Bataan, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, most of Visayas

Both Goring and the enhanced southwest monsoon are also affecting coastal waters. Another gale warning was issued at 11 am on Monday, covering the following seaboards:

• eastern seaboard of Northern Luzon (Isabela, eastern coast of Cagayan) – rough to high seas, with waves 3.1 to 6.5 meters high
• northern seaboard of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, northern coast of Cagayan, northern coast of Ilocos Norte, Aurora) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 5 meters high
• western seaboard of Central Luzon as well as seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas (Bataan, Zambales, Palawan, Romblon, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Burias Islands, Antique, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Bohol, Siquijor, Cebu, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

PAGASA advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

Goring is likely to exit PAR on Thursday morning or afternoon, and cross the Taiwan Strait. Then it could make landfall in the southeastern part of China on Friday evening, September 1, or early Saturday morning, September 2.

It is the Philippines’ seventh tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for August. It was also the third super typhoon for the year, after Betty (Mawar) in May and Egay (Doksuri) in July.

PAGASA previously said it expects two or three tropical cyclones to develop within or enter PAR in August.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Haikui, located outside PAR, was last spotted 2,230 kilometers east of Northern Luzon. It is moving west at 15 km/h.

Haikui has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. It is expected to steadily intensify in the next five days, possibly becoming a severe tropical storm on Tuesday and a typhoon on Wednesday, before its entry into PAR.

It may enter PAR on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning, and would be given the local name Hanna.

The potential Hanna’s general direction would be west northwest over the Philippine Sea until Friday. Then starting Friday evening or Saturday morning, it could turn north or north northwest near the northeastern PAR boundary, which means it may stay far from landmass.

Based on that scenario, it would be “less likely” to directly affect the country.

But it could enhance the southwest monsoon beginning Wednesday or Thursday, which may lead to more monsoon rain in the western parts of Luzon and the Visayas.

– Rappler.com