MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Goring (Saola) maintained its strength over the Philippine Sea on Monday afternoon, August 28, as it continued to enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat. Both Goring and the enhanced southwest monsoon are still bringing heavy rain.

Goring was last spotted 260 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, moving north at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It still has maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h and gustiness of up to 190 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 5 pm on Monday.

At its peak, Goring was a super typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h.

PAGASA sees Goring heading north or northwest in the next 36 hours, then west northwest on Wednesday afternoon, August 30, toward the Bashi Channel and the vicinity of Batanes. The Bashi Channel is between Batanes and Taiwan, which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Goring may gradually intensify before passing close to Batanes, or possibly making landfall in the province, on Wednesday.

Then it may also approach the southern part of Taiwan between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, August 31. “Interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan during its close approach” may lead to a weakening trend starting late Wednesday.

PAGASA warned that Goring will continue to trigger rain until Thursday, so affected areas must stay on alert for floods and landslides.

Monday afternoon, August 28, to Tuesday afternoon, August 29

• 50-100 millimeters (mm): Babuyan Islands, northeastern part of mainland Cagayan

Tuesday afternoon, August 29, to Wednesday afternoon, August 30

• 50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern part of mainland Cagayan, northern part of Apayao, northern part of Ilocos Norte

Wednesday afternoon, August 30, to Thursday evening, August 31

• Greater than 200 mm: Batanes
• 100-200 mm: Babuyan Islands
• 50-100 mm: northern part of mainland Cagayan, northern part of Apayao, northern part of Ilocos Norte

Fewer areas remained under Signal No. 1 as of 5 pm on Monday, since Goring is completing its looping path over the Philippine Sea and is relatively farther from land. Below are the areas still under Signal No. 1.

• Batanes
• northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan (Camalaniugan, Pamplona, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Santa Ana, Claveria, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Sanchez Mira, Santa Praxedes, Allacapan, Lal-lo, Lasam, Peñablanca, Iguig, Amulung, Gattaran, Alcala) including Babuyan Islands
• eastern part of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, San Pablo, Cabagan, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)

PAGASA warned, however, that higher wind signals can still be raised for extreme Northern Luzon and the northern or northeastern part of mainland Cagayan on Tuesday, August 29.

Signal No. 3 or 4 for the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area is not ruled out.

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Goring also continues to enhance the southwest monsoon or habagat. Rain from the enhanced southwest monsoon remains heaviest in Occidental Mindoro.

On Wednesday, Metro Manila is among the areas which may have moderate to heavy rain due to the enhanced southwest monsoon.

Monday, August 28

• 100-200 mm: Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo islands, Antique

Tuesday, August 29

• 100-200 mm: Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, northern part of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo islands, Antique, southwestern part of Iloilo, northwestern part of Aklan

Wednesday, August 30

• 100-200 mm: Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
• 50-100 mm: Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas

The enhanced southwest monsoon is triggering gusty conditions in these areas as well:

Monday, August 28

• Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, most of Zamboanga Peninsula

Tuesday, August 29

• Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, most of Zamboanga Peninsula

Wednesday, August 30

• Aurora, Bataan, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, most of Visayas

PAGASA issued a new gale warning at 5 pm on Monday, as both Goring and the enhanced southwest monsoon continue to affect coastal waters. These seaboards are covered by the gale warning:

• eastern seaboard of Northern Luzon (Isabela, eastern coast of Cagayan) – rough to high seas, with waves 3.1 to 6.5 meters high
• northern seaboard of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan, northern coast of Cagayan, northern coast of Ilocos Norte, Aurora) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 5 meters high
• western seaboard of Central Luzon, seaboards of Southern Luzon, seaboards of Visayas, and northern seaboard of Mindanao (Bataan, Zambales, Palawan, Romblon, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Burias Islands, Antique, Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Bohol, Siquijor, Cebu, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Zamboanga del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Agusan del Norte, Dinagat Islands) – rough to very rough seas, with waves 2.8 to 4.5 meters high

The weather bureau advised fishing boats and other small vessels not to sail, and larger vessels to watch out for big waves.

Goring is likely to exit PAR on Thursday morning or afternoon, and cross the Taiwan Strait. Then it could make landfall in the southeastern part of China on Friday evening, September 1, or early Saturday morning, September 2.

It is the Philippines’ seventh tropical cyclone for 2023 and the first for August. It was also the third super typhoon for the year, after Betty (Mawar) in May and Egay (Doksuri) in July.

PAGASA previously said it expects two or three tropical cyclones to develop within or enter PAR in August.

The second tropical cyclone for August could be the tropical storm with the international name Haikui, which remains outside PAR.

Haikui was located 2,205 kilometers east of Northern Luzon on Monday afternoon, slowly moving west southwest.

The tropical storm continues to have maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. It is expected to steadily intensify in the next five days, possibly becoming a severe tropical storm on Tuesday and a typhoon on Wednesday, before its entry into PAR.

It may enter PAR on Wednesday evening or Thursday morning, and would be given the local name Hanna.

The potential Hanna’s general direction would be west northwest over the Philippine Sea until Friday. Then starting Friday evening or Saturday morning, it could turn north or north northwest near the northeastern PAR boundary, which means it may stay far from landmass.

Based on that scenario, it would be “less likely” to directly affect the country.

But it could enhance the southwest monsoon beginning Wednesday or Thursday, which may lead to more monsoon rain in the western parts of Luzon and the Visayas.

– Rappler.com